370
FXAK67 PAJK 291733 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
933 AM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY
- POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY, THE CENTER OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA, SERVING AS THE CATALYST FOR CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW, CLOUD COVER, AND LIGHT RAIN. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND RETROGRADES, THE POLAR JET WILL BECOME MERIDIONAL, ALLOWING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE NORTH SATURDAY. KEEPING
THINGS SIMPLE, RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER SATURDAY. THE FORECASTED SHOWERS SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY DRIVE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL, PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THIS ONE LAST
HURRAH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL DAYS OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER STARTING LATE SUNDAY,
THANKS IN PART TO A LARGE CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF. MORE INFO BELOW.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE IN A STATE OF TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA FOR SUNDAY AS WE SWITCH OUT OF A BROAD COOL UPPER
TROUGH THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK. THE
PATTERN WILL BE SWITCHING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW
PACIFIC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF ALASKA
AND THE YUKON.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES TO A SOMEWHAT STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NW PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THIS PATTERN THE TREND IS TOWARD WARMER, DRIER, AND SUNNIER
WEATHER ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THE WARM UP, BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S LIKELY (ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
ARE POSSIBLE) AS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST AT THAT POINT
LIKELY CANCELING OUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES IN SOME AREAS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY AREAS TO EXCEED RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, BUT SOME
AREAS COULD GET CLOSE (RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FOR MANY AREAS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS IN THE GULF
AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR THIS
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE TO E DIRECTION
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE LOW CLOUDS WELL OFFSHORE.
AT THE MOMENT, THE NICER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
BEYOND MID WEEK. AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM BC IS LOOKING LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM SE TO NW POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY MORNING (THOUGH IT COULD BE AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING) BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TO THE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MAY BE DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN (NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE MID 50S TO 60).
AVIATION...PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF
AVIATION TODAY. MOST AREAS ARE VFR THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE A
FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS DOWN TO 2500 FT DUE TO SHOWERS. OVERALL
THAT PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS
EXPECTED MIDDAY TODAY AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY
SHOWERS WILL START IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOWARD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL
ESTABLISHED KEEPING SURFACE TEMPS COOLER SO STRONGER CONVECTION IS
NOT LIKELY. STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN N LYNN AND SKAGWAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE S TODAY. EXPECT THOSE
WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING DOWN TO 10
KT OVERNIGHT, AND THEN INCREASING TO 15 KT AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE:
AS OF 0400 FRIDAY, ASCAT WIND PASSES SHOWED A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR
56.69N 144.22W, WITH COASTAL BUOYS SHOWING ESE WINDS OF GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES. SEA STATE WAS PRIMARILY DECAYING SW SWELL; 6 TO
8 FT AT 11 TO 13 SECONDS WITH SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP. FOR TODAY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST, WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
SWELL CONTINUING TO LAY DOWN. SATURDAY THE GUST FACTOR WILL
INCREASE, WITH GUSTS LIKELY REACHING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES.
FURTHERMORE, THERE EXISTS POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST; KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO YOUR SOUTH. DOMINANT WAVE
SYSTEM WILL SWITCH FROM SW SWELL TO SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES, WITH
UNDERLYING, BUT ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE, SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE FAR
SOUTH PACIFIC. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS NEAR 4 TO 6 FT AND PERIOD OF 7
TO 10 SECONDS.
INSIDE:
ESSENTIALLY A CUT AND COPY WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE INSIDE
FRIDAY, WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND AND RAIN SHOWERS THAN WE SAW
THURSDAY. HIGHEST WINDS OF FRESH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. SATURDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GUST FACTOR INCREASING. WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REACH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BY AND LARGE.
SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO FALL UNDER THE DARKEST CLOUDS, FORESHADOWING
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ICY
STRAIT. FOR FOLKS ON THE WATER, KEEP A WEATHER EYE ON THE HORIZON,
NOAA WX RADIO TUNED IN, AND HAVE SAFE HARBOR IN REACH. LATE
SUNDAY RAIN SHOWERS END, WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
ONE NOTE ON THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. PER NWS DEFINITION, A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MEANS WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 58MPH AND/OR HAIL
GREATER THAN 1 INCH. FOR NOW, WE ARE NOT FORECASTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEMANTICS ASIDE, THE STRONGEST OF STORMS
SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR
25 TO 35 KNOTS. SO FOR FOLKS IN SMALLER RECREATIONAL VESSELS AND
SEA KAYAKS, THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE PRETTY INTENSE. CHECK
WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU BEFORE HEADING OUT ON THE WATER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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