408
FXAK67 PAJK 292335
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS LINGER FRIDAY WITH BRIEF BREAK OVERNIGHT
- ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY. SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TAP TO
START NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TO END THE WEEK. THROUGH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT, SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A SECOND DAY IN A ROW FRIDAY, GENERALLY
TRAVELING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION RETROGRADES, THE POLAR JET WILL BECOME
MERIDIONAL OVER THE PANHANDLE, HELPING TO STEER A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DRAWN FROM THE PARENT
LOW IN THE GULF, THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND EASTWARD TO METLAKATLA AND KETCHIKAN ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE THESE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BRIEFLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES (TO 2 MILES OR LESS), AS WELL AS GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KT. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES, MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEHIND
THIS FEATURE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.
THIS ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH ICY STRAIT AND THE
JUNEAU AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD THEN LOSE MOMENTUM, BUT
CONTINUED VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROVIDE LIFT RESULTING
IN LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN START TO BUILD IN, WHICH WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AND INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LATER SUNDAY, THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE OUTER COAST.
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE MORE SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE GROWS AS
NEXT WEEK APPROACHES THAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SWEEP THE PANHANDLE. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES
IN HIGH AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE OVER 65
DEGREE TEMPS. THE AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 70 IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO SIT AROUND 60%, BUT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THIS NUMBER INCREASE AS THE DAYS GO ON. IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WE ARE SEEING THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOVE 65 SIT AROUND 60%, BUT AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH
TIME. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THAT ARE DUE TO LOCAL INFLUENCES
NOT WELL RESOLVED ON MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE MOSTLY TO ENTIRELY CLEAR WHICH CAN
IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE SUN CAN HEAT THE AIR, RAISING THE
TEMPERATURE.
DUE TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND
THE COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF, THERE ARE BREEZY WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY, ICY STRAIT AND LYNN
CANAL, BEING IMPACTED BY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO, TYPICALLY SEA BREEZES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING.
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF
AND BREAK APART BEFORE BRINGING ANY MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD BEGIN SEEING
SHOWERS AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS THE REMNANTS OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN
OF AVIATION TODAY. MOST AREAS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW OF
THE SHOWERS ARE BRINGING LOWER CEILINGS (DOWN TO 2500 FT) AND
SOME GUSTIER WINDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA. OVERALL THAT
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL
START IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN THE MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TOWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING
SURFACE TEMPS COOLER SO CONVECTION THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AT ALL. STRONGEST WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE IN N LYNN AND SKAGWAY WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KT FROM THE S TODAY. EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING DOWN TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
INCREASING TO 15 KT AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS OF WIND ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS TODAY. N LYNN IS THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WHERE S WINDS
TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN BLOWING SINCE MID MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE A SHORT
WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE FROM S TO N THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING SOME PERIODS OF 15 KT WINDS TO MANY
PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT THIS
FEATURE BRINGS COULD CAUSE HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT AT
TIMES. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHANNELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW.
SEAS MAINLY 3 FT OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THE
GUSTY WINDS NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 4 OR 5
FT.
GULF WATERS: E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS REMAIN THE NORM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. THAT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE
PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY DOES FEATURE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF INCREASING WINDS TO 20
KT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS, BUT FOR AREAS E OF
140 W, WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 15 KT. COMBINED SEAS ARE 7 FT OR
LESS AT THE MOMENT WITH A 5 FT SW SWELL (11 SEC PERIOD). SEAS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY THOUGH WIND WAVE
WILL HAVE MORE OF A CONTRIBUTION AS SW SWELL SUBSIDES FURTHER INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...EAL
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