365
FXAK67 PAJK 302305
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
305 PM AKDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
SATURDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS FOLLOWING THE SCRIPT OF WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION RETROGRADES WESTWARD SLIGHTLY, WHILE STILL STEERING
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. AN INITIAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION
MOST NOTICEABLE OFFSHORE OF BARANOF ISLAND WHERE MORE ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA RADAR AND SATELLITE. A MORE
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OFF OF HAIDA GWAII IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING FURTHER ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR DRAWN FROM THE PARENT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ALLOW THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.
ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UPWARDS OF 0.25 INCHES IN LESS THAN HOUR AND
BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 MILES OR LESS, AS WELL AS GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 25 KT. WITH ENOUGH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT, ICE
PELLETS COULD ALSO MIX IN WITH THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASING LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO
CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AND INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD STILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE OUTER COAST. WITH THIS CLEARING, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 50S, APPROACHING 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND OFFSHORE FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH
SOME SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES POSSIBLY REACHING 70. FOR MORE ON THIS
WARMING AND DRY PERIOD TO START NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
APPEAR THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THIS
WARMING TREND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDIFIES ITS POSITION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING CLEARER
SKIES TO THE PANHANDLE. THE INCREASE IN DIRECT DAY TIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MEDIAN
TEMPERATURE VALUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, MEANING THIS IS THE 50TH PERCENTILE
OUTCOME. HALF OF THE TEMPERATURES LAY BELOW THIS VALUE AND HALF
LAY ABOVE. THE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURE VALUES STILL HAS A LARGE
RANGE, HOWEVER, INDICATING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LOCAL HEATING
EFFECTS. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE VARIES UP TO 10 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS HIGHER SPREAD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREA. THIS MEANS THAT THE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES HIGHER OR 5 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MEDIAN VALUES FROM THE NBM. THE 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THIS RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO LOOK TO BE SEASONALLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER
THAN TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
COULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THIS COOLING IN THE
SOUTH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE AFTER AN ORGANIZED LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF MOVES EAST AND FALLS APART. EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUD
COVER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE, AND COMMUNITIES
COULD END UP SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE REMNANTS FROM THE FRONT ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
GENERALLY MVFR EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE
EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING OF THE SHOWERS TO START LATE EVENING IN
THE SOUTH WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
WE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO GO MORE VFR BY LATE MORNING AREA-WIDE.
05/GARMON
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS MAKING WINDS
AND SEAS SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC. WHILE WINDS OVERALL ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S AND E, HEAVIER
SHOWERS ARE BRINGING GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES FOR BRIEF
PERIODS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA. LIKEWISE, SEAS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 3 TO 4 FT, BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY BRING SEAS UP A
FOOT OR SO HIGHER DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3 OR 4 MILES AT TIMES FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT FOR MOST AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT
FROM PASSING SHOWERS WHILE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT REMAIN THE NORM. INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WIND SPEEDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY THE
SAME, BUT WIND DIRECTION WILL START TO SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS OFFSHORE
FLOW BECOME MORE DOMINATE.
GULF WATERS: WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E AND S DIRECTION AT 15 KT
OR LESS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS E OF 138
W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND ON SUNDAY TO
GENERALLY 20 KT WITH 25 KT POSSIBLE W OF 140 W ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR THAT LEVEL
INTO MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 5 FT OR LESS CURRENTLY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SWELL. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL GULF W OF
138 W TO AROUND 7 FT SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 11 TO 15 FT
BY MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. MOST OF THAT WILL
BE WIND WAVE. ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL NOT SHOW UP UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN A S SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT BY TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...EAL
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