929
FXAK67 PAJK 311810
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1010 AM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS SENDING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWER CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW TODAY, BUT
SOME CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA, AND WILL GENERALLY CLEAR OUT
THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE OFFSHORE WIND TO
DEVELOP, AND LEAD TO FAIRLY BENIGN FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING, THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY CALM WINDS, AND
THUS SOME FOG CONCERNS. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG AND IFR VISIBILITY FOR GUSTAVUS,
PETERSBURG, AND KLAWOCK BETWEEN 10-14Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 551 AM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SE AK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
BEFORE RAIN DIMINISHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MODEST AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE) PRESENT OF 50-200
J/KG BETWEEN 925 MB AND 700 MB HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
TO DROP SMALL HAIL, AND EVEN THROW A FEW THUNDERBOLTS. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL FADE AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN TURNS INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE EAST, WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING AS THE REMNANTS OF A LOW OVER THE GULF DISINTEGRATE
ENTIRELY; THE STEERING FLOW INSTEAD BEING DICTATED BY A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND ABUNDANT SUN OF EARLY SUMMER WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
SOARING. THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY, WITH TEMPS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
THE 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S FROM SUMNER STRAIT NORTH, WITH 70S IN STORE
FOR THE SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK,
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S, AND SOME 80S LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS
WILL FLIP OUT OF THE N FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONGSIDE
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. FOR DETAILS ON A RETURN TO CHANCES OF RAIN
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, PLEASE REFER TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
APPEAR THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THIS
WARMING TREND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDIFIES ITS POSITION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
MONDAY AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING CLEARER
SKIES TO THE PANHANDLE. THE INCREASE IN DIRECT DAY TIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MEDIAN
TEMPERATURE VALUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
70S THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, MEANING THIS IS THE 50TH PERCENTILE
OUTCOME. HALF OF THE TEMPERATURES LAY BELOW THIS VALUE AND HALF
LAY ABOVE. THE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURE VALUES STILL HAS A LARGE
RANGE, HOWEVER, INDICATING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LOCAL HEATING
EFFECTS. THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE VARIES UP TO 10 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS HIGHER SPREAD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY AREA. THIS MEANS THAT THE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES HIGHER OR 5 DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT MEDIAN VALUES FROM THE NBM. THE 10TH-90TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THIS RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALSO LOOK TO BE SEASONALLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER
THAN TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
COULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS TUESDAY. THIS COOLING IN THE
SOUTH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE AFTER AN ORGANIZED LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF MOVES EAST AND FALLS APART. EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUD
COVER IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE, AND COMMUNITIES
COULD END UP SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE REMNANTS FROM THE FRONT ARE THEN ANTICIPATED TO
MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE, SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SPECIFICALLY, THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS AROUND A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
70 DEGREES F. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN MULTIPLE MODELS WITH INCREASED
850 MB TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS
IT IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
AVIATION...SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN. WITH THE CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANT
SHOWERS STILL OVER THE AREA, WE ARE SEEING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR
HEIGHTS. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, OTHER OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING. THE
SHOWERS THAT ARE STILL AROUND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BEFORE WORKING NORTH. TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD,
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD HEADING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
GULF WATERS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW AN INCREASING TREND ON
SUNDAY TO GENERALLY 20 KT WITH 25 KT POSSIBLE W OF 140 W
ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY STAY
NEAR THAT LEVEL INTO MONDAY WITH THE HIGHER WINDS THE FURTHER WEST
YOU GO. SEAS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 5 FT OR LESS CURRENTLY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SWELL. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF W OF 138 W TO AROUND 7 FT SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN TO 11 TO 15 FT BY MONDAY AS A FRONT STALLS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF. MOST OF THAT WILL BE WIND WAVE. ANY SIGNIFICANT SWELL WILL
NOT SHOW UP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A S SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING
TO 6 TO 8 FT BY TUESDAY.
INSIDE: EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KT FOR
MOST AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT FROM PASSING SHOWERS
WHILE SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT REMAIN THE NORM ON SUNDAY. INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WIND SPEEDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY THE SAME, BUT WIND
DIRECTION WILL START TO SHOW A SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOME MORE
DOMINATE. SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES.
WINDS 5 TO 15 KT MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...SF/MUSALL
MARINE...GFS/EAL
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