600
FXAK67 PAJK 312339
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
339 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS TAPERING OFF
BY THE AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD
FEATURES A TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE COOL SHOWERY WEATHER THAT WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TO DRYER, SUNNIER, AND WARMER WEATHER. THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THIS CHANGE IS THAT THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE LAST WEEK HAS DIMINISHED AND
BEEN ABSORBED INTO A STRONG LOW THAT IS OVER THE NE PACIFIC WHILE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
AREA. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT HIGH WILL HAVE MIGRATED UP TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN YUKON WHICH WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THE RESULTS, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL BE
DIMINISHING, AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
EXPECTED HIGHS WILL BE GETTING INTO THE 60S (WITH SOME 70S IN
SOME AREAS) MONDAY, AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON TUESDAY SO SOME AREAS THAT USUALLY SEE COOLING FROM SEA
BREEZES MAY FIND THAT THE BREEZE HAS BEEN CANCELED OUT BY THE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND MAY SEE TEMPERATURES WARMER THEN USUAL. SOME
AREAS IN THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO HIT 80 OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (EXCEPT FOR ANNETTE ISLAND WHICH SHOULD STAY COOLER DUE
TO ITS PROXIMITY TO WATER).
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO APPLY TO THE OUTER COAST AND MOST
OF THE EASTERN GULF AS E TO NE FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS WELL OFFSHORE FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. SOME FOG
MAY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, BUT IT MAY NOT LAST LONG
INTO THE MORNING AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS (SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY NOT SEE ANY FOG AS OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO DRY
THE LOW LEVELS OUT).
WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD BE STARTING TO SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY THIS EVENING IF THEY
HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO IN AN AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
WITH WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS (EXCEPT N LYNN WHICH COULD SEE N WINDS
OF 20 KT ON TUESDAY). SEAS BREEZES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MAY BE CANCELED OUT BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER AND DRIER
BEFORE RAIN RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S INTO THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MIGHT NOT GET AS WARM AS
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. RAIN WILL THEN BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES EXPECTED OFFSHORE, OVER
THE GULF, FOLLOWING THE PARENT LOW THAT IS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST A WEAK RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST, OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, COULD CONTINUE TO
SEND WAVES OF ENERGY INTO THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUING RAIN
SHOWERS.
WINDS ACROSS THE LONG TERM LOOK TO REMAIN MORE BENIGN AS WELL. THE
MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A FEW WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES WITHIN JUST A FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW EXITING THE
GULF, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE, AND THEN ANOTHER
LOW ENTERING THE GULF A FEW DAYS LATER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WINDS OVER THE GULF, AND FOR LAND AREAS FROM BARANOF ISLAND
SOUTHWARD, WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS SENDING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS, AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWER CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT SOME CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET AND BRIEF DROPS IN
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE CLEARING
OUT THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. UNDER THE RIDGE, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE RIDGE DEVELOPING, THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY CALM WINDS, AND
THUS SOME FOG CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG AND IFR VISIBILITY FOR JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, PETERSBURG, AND
KLAWOCK BETWEEN 09-14Z. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
A LOW IN SW GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE OVER THE
COURSE OF THIS WEEK AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS
MULTIPLE WEAK FRONTS/TROUGHS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RIDGE AND WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS:
OUTER WATERS: HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL REMAIN
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL GULF (IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW) THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD OVER THE
GULF RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FEET IN THE COASTAL
WATERS. DUE TO SWELL INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AS
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COMBINED SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSER TO 10-15FT.
INNER WATERS: WINDS OVER INNER WATERS WILL BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY
MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA CAUSING GENERALIZED
'OFFSHORE' FLOW. DUE TO CHANNELING THROUGH TERRAIN WINDS OVER THE
N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY THAN EASTERLY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HOWEVER, AREAS WITH INCREASED CHANNELING
SUCH AS LYNN CANAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT
MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ328-330-331.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...BUTWIN
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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