183
FXAK67 PAJK 011826
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 AM AKDT MON JUN 1 2026
UPDATE...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS
DECKS DRIFTING OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION, MAINTAINING A GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. MOST SITES WILL SEE WINDS
REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10KTS, THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROMOTE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT, RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 15KTS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR KETCHIKAN. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
INCREASINGLY DRY MID TO LOWER LEVELS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 516 AM AKDT MON JUN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLE TO START
OFF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA IS
HOW THINGS ARE STARTING OFF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION THIS
BEING AROUND THE YAKUTAT AREA WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED. TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST OF A COUPLE WARM DAYS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH MOST PLACES LOOKING TO GET INTO THE 50S TO 60S WITH
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S TO 30S DUE TO NO CLOUDS
BEING AROUND TO HOLD IN ANY OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TOMORROW WILL STILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH 70S TO LOW 80S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 60S TO 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER AND DRIER
BEFORE RAIN RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S INTO THE
70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MIGHT NOT GET AS WARM AS
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. RAIN WILL THEN BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES EXPECTED OFFSHORE, OVER
THE GULF, FOLLOWING THE PARENT LOW THAT IS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST A WEAK RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST, OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, COULD CONTINUE TO
SEND WAVES OF ENERGY INTO THE AREA BRINGING CONTINUING RAIN
SHOWERS.
WINDS ACROSS THE LONG TERM LOOK TO REMAIN MORE BENIGN AS WELL. THE
MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A FEW WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES WITHIN JUST A FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW EXITING THE
GULF, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE, AND THEN ANOTHER
LOW ENTERING THE GULF A FEW DAYS LATER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WINDS OVER THE GULF, AND FOR LAND AREAS FROM BARANOF ISLAND
SOUTHWARD, WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): GENTLE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE BEING
REPORTED THIS MORNING ACROSS OUTER COAST AND GULF WATERS AS A LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS AROUND 47N AND 154W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GAPS IN THE TERRAIN WHILE OTHER PLACES
WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE THE WAVE HEIGHTS. CLOSER TO THE COAST, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT BUT WILL INCREASE AS WE SEE OVERALL SWELL
DIRECTION SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING
BIGGER SEAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GROWING TO 7 TO 10
FT STARTING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO START TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE SWELL INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTH DIMINISHES. THE LOW
THAT IS LINGERING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THIS TIME
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MOST PLACES ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THIS
MORNING CONTINUE TO REPORT LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A MODERATE BREEZE. THESE
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES BY LATER TODAY.
ONE CONCERN WITH THE WINDS TODAY IS HOW MUCH DOES THE GRADIENT
HELPING THE NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN AS SEA BREEZES ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP
WITH THE WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WEAKER
NORTHERLY WIND OR POTENTIALLY A LIGHT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ328-330-331.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...SF
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