511
FXAK67 PAJK 021819
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1019 AM AKDT TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE ALASKA MEANS THAT WE HAVE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. WITH SUNNY SKIES AREA WIDE, SEABREEZES
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA LIKE YESTERDAY. THE
SEABREEZES WILL END THIS EVENING, AND CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS SENDING
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.THE LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA, BUT SHOWER
CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 416 AM AKDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH
SEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING ARE
STARTING OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH CIRRUS PASSING
BY. ONE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IS
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH MOST PLACES SEEING TEMPERATURES SITTING CURRENTLY
AROUND THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIERS THOUGH
THAT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO THE HIGH 30S. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT WE WILL SEE DROP A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING AS THE SUN
COMES UP BEFORE WE WARM UP TO THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HIT THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
80S LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WE LOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 60S TO 70S FOR THE PANHANDLE. BY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH, WE WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR RAIN START TO INCREASE
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN
SITTING OFFSHORE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND BRING A WEAK FRONT
NORTHWARD THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A
RAINY DAY FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WITH A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE OVERCAST WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH
MORE MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE.
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE SET UP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MIX BETWEEN ON SHORE SLOW IN THE
NORTH AND OFF SHORE FLOW IN THE SOUTH WILL DRY OUT THE PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY. THIS SET UP TYPICALLY BRINGS A MARINE LAYER AND CLOUDS
TO THE AREA, AND ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND
ISOLATED.
STRONGER ON SHORE FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN ON SATURDAY WHICH THEN
INCREASES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM ACROSS THE PERIOD. THE MAIN EXPECTATION IS
WIND SHIFTS TO FOLLOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION...THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE 06Z FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REPEAT FROM
YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE SEA BREEZES PICK UP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT
AS NIGHT FALLS. CIGS,WHERE PRESENT, WILL GENERALLY BE
INTERMITTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WITH BASES IN EXCESS OF 10K
FEET. THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
TREND DOWNWARD TOWARDS MVFR, AS MORE CLOUD COVER RETURNS TO THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING BETWEEN 4 TO 10 KT CURRENTLY.
THE ONE BUOY PROVING TO BE THE EXCEPTION IS THE CENTRAL GULF BUOY,
46085, WHICH IS REPORTING WINDS AROUND 20 KT DUE TO BEING CLOSER TO
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KT TODAY ALTHOUGH GAPS IN TERRAIN
COULD SEE WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KT. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT, THE CONCERN WILL BE THE WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS. THESE
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 7 TO 10 FT WAVES WITH
GREATER WAVE HEIGHTS FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKELY. THESE WAVES WILL START
TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO TOMORROW THOUGH AS THE SOUTHERLY SWELL
BECOMES LESS INFLUENTIAL AND THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING MOVES
TO THE EAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS THIS MORNING REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 15 KT
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TODAY
WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME STRONGER WINDS.
HEADED INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS SHOULD START
TO DECREASE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PLACES LIKE LYNN CANAL AND CROSS
SOUND. WITH THE APPROACHING LOW FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTH FOR MOST PLACES IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS DURING THIS TIME COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT.
WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 4 FT
FOR MOST WATER WAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN ENTRANCES WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO 7 TO 9 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ328-330-331.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...GFS/MUSALL
MARINE...SF
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