026
FXAK67 PAJK 030559
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
959 PM AKDT TUE JUN 2 2026
UPDATE
TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOLLOWING THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS AN OCCLUDING LOW IN THE GULF
PUSHES A FRONT NORTHWARD, CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER CIGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE, AOA 2500FT, BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PASI, PAPG, AND PAWG, WHILE PAKT AND
PAKW ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST SUSTAINED IMPACTS WITH EARLIER
ONSET PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS, AOA 1500FT.
AT NORTHERN TAF SITES, HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY ARRIVING DURING THE
EVENING. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT UNDER 10KTS,
DIURNAL HEATING COULD TRIGGER OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN
15-20KTS IN THE NORTH. NO LLWS ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
354 PM AKDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUNNY SKIES.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL MILD FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
- NEXT FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- COOLER WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THE STORY OF THE
DAY. MULTIPLE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE HAD
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 80S WITH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PANHANDLE REACHING INTO THE HIGH 70S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES HAVE
OCCURRED NEAR KLAWOCK WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WITH DOWNSLOPING HELPED
TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGAN.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO QUICKLY INCREASE TOMORROW, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET AS WARM AS A LOW MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WE WILL START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE
AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HELP TO PREVENT MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING AS
HIGH AS THEY DID TODAY. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES SE AK, IT WILL BRING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL START TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN TOTALS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW, BUT A FEW PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
MOVES SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER LEVEL OFF-SHORE
FLOW SHIFTS TO ON-SHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, OUT OF THE AREA. THIS THEN
ALLOWS A RIDGE TO TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, BOTH
THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE BETWEEN ENSEMBLES.
THIS HAS CREATED MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING A DRYING TREND
WITH SHOWERS ON FRIDAY DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER CONDITIONS, SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
CLOUDIER DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING OFF THE OCEAN.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY COULD ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, SPECIFICALLY THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND LAND AREAS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. A FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL
BRING LOWERING CLOUD DECKS FROM PASI OVER TO PAPG AND ON SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD LOWER CIGS DOWN TO MVFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON FOR PAPG, PAWG AND ESPECIALLY PAKT AND PAKW. FOR TAF
SITES FURTHER NORTH, JUST EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND WILL MOVE EAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR HAIDA GWAII, SO THE HIGHEST WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND WAVES UP TO
10 FEET WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN WATERS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK IN THE
INNER CHANNEL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL APPROACH OUR AREA INCREASE THE WINDS IN EAST-WEST CHANNELS
(E.G. CROSS SOUND, FREDRICK SOUND, AND SUMNER STRAIT). THE LOW IS
FAIRLY WEAK, SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS, BUT MAY
APPROACH 20 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 FEET AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP, AND
LEAD TO GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...MUSALL
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