813
FXAK67 PAJK 031253
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
453 AM AKDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO THE
50S AND 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-RAIN RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-DRIER WEATHER LIKELY TO RETURNS LAT IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
A WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY IS ONCE MORE IN STORE FOR
SE AK ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WON'T QUITE REACH THE
HEIGHTS THEY DID ON TUESDAY, AS RAIN LOOKS SET TO RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLE.
A BROAD VERTICALLY INTEGRATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF IS
SLOWLY MEANDERING TO THE NE. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, A COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL FINALLY
BE ABLE TO ADVANCE NORTH, BRINGING AN END TO THE LULL IN PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH NOT BEFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
60S AND 70S ACROSS SE AK. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS SET TO
STALL THEREAFTER, AS THE THE PARENT LOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE DUE E
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN THE NORTH WHO
PREFER DRIER WEATHER, THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO
STALL DIRECTLY OVER THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ~1.00 INCH OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES HAVE INDICATED THAT ANYWHERE FROM ~0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIKELY, BUT THE
WETTING RAINS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER BACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO BC AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. IN ITS WAKE, LINGERING SHOWERS TAKE HOLD BEFORE A CHANCE FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ,THOUGH AM
NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT STRONG WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF SKAGWAY, BUT THESE WILL BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. 15 - 20 KT WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR MARITIME AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL OFF-SHORE FLOW
SHIFTS TO ON-SHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, OUT OF THE AREA. THIS THEN
ALLOWS A RIDGE TO TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, BOTH
THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE BETWEEN ENSEMBLES.
THIS HAS CREATED MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING A DRYING TREND
WITH SHOWERS ON FRIDAY DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER CONDITIONS, SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
CLOUDIER DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING OFF THE OCEAN.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY COULD ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, SPECIFICALLY THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND LAND AREAS.
WINDS ACROSS THE LONG TERM LOOK TO REMAIN MORE BENIGN AS WELL. THE
MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A FEW WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES WITHIN JUST A FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW EXITING THE
GULF, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE, AND THEN ANOTHER
LOW ENTERING THE GULF A FEW DAYS LATER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WINDS OVER THE GULF, AND FOR LAND AREAS FROM BARANOF ISLAND
SOUTHWARD, WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE THE NORM THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THOUGH THIS WILL BE CHANGING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A FRONT COMING UP FROM
THE S COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NW FROM CANADA WILL START
TO BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PRIMARILY AFTER MIDDAY. VIS AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING OR LATER WITH CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH DROPPING
TO AROUND 2500 FT BY THEN (VIS SHOULD STAY VFR). THE NORTH MAY NOT
SEE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EVEN THEN IS
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN CEILINGS
ALSO DROP TO AROUND 2500 FT (YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ONLY PLACES THAT STAND A GOOD CHANCE TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WHICH COULD REACH 15 KT IN SOME AREAS OF THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER SEA BREEZES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING. THERE WILL BE A
GENERAL SWITCH OF WIND DIRECTIONS FROM A NORTHERLY TO A SOUTHERLY
TODAY (WHICH HAS ALREADY HAPPENED IN AREAS SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT
THIS MORNING).
MARINE
(GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR HAIDA GWAII, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS UP TO
20 KTS AND WAVES UP TO 10 FEET OCCURRING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THE DIXON ENTRANCE. WAVEHEIGHTS FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
COAST WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE FROM 7 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 4 TO 6
FT BY THURSDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH OUR AREA AND SEND A FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY HIGHER FOR AREAS
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SET- UP, AND LEAD TO GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW.MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...MUSALL/GFS
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