988
FXAK67 PAJK 031825 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1025 AM AKDT WED JUN 3 2026
UPDATE
DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AND DELAYED THE START TIME OF SHOWERS
ARRIVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE YAKUTAT ARE HAS CAUSED
TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALREADY THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL ABATE SOME AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY GIVE WAY TO THE
50S AND 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-RAIN SHOWERS RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
-DRIER WEATHER LIKELY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
A WARMER THAN AVERAGE DAY IS ONCE MORE IN STORE FOR
SE AK ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WON'T QUITE REACH THE
HEIGHTS THEY DID ON TUESDAY, AS RAIN LOOKS SET TO RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLE.
A BROAD VERTICALLY INTEGRATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF IS
SLOWLY MEANDERING TO THE NE. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA, A COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL FINALLY
BE ABLE TO ADVANCE NORTH, BRINGING AN END TO THE LULL IN PRECIP AND
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH NOT BEFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
60S AND 70S ACROSS SE AK. THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS SET TO
STALL THEREAFTER, AS THE THE PARENT LOW BEGINS TO TRAVERSE DUE E
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE IN THE NORTH WHO
PREFER DRIER WEATHER, THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO
STALL DIRECTLY OVER THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ~1.00 INCH OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES HAVE INDICATED THAT ANYWHERE FROM ~0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIKELY, BUT THE
WETTING RAINS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER BACK SOUTH AND WEAKEN ON
FRIDAY AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO BC AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. IN ITS WAKE, LINGERING SHOWERS TAKE HOLD BEFORE A CHANCE FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT ,THOUGH AM
NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT STRONG WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS OF SKAGWAY, BUT THESE WILL BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. 15 - 20 KT WINDS ARE
LIKELY FOR MARITIME AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER LEVEL OFF-SHORE FLOW
SHIFTS TO ON-SHORE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE COAST, OUT OF THE AREA. THIS THEN
ALLOWS A RIDGE TO TAKE ITS PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, BOTH
THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE BETWEEN ENSEMBLES.
THIS HAS CREATED MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING A DRYING TREND
WITH SHOWERS ON FRIDAY DIMINISHING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER CONDITIONS, SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
CLOUDIER DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING OFF THE OCEAN.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY IS LIKELY TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK
TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY COULD ALSO BRING INCREASED
WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY, SPECIFICALLY THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS AND LAND AREAS.
WINDS ACROSS THE LONG TERM LOOK TO REMAIN MORE BENIGN AS WELL. THE
MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A FEW WIND DIRECTION
CHANGES WITHIN JUST A FEW DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW EXITING THE
GULF, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING ITS PLACE, AND THEN ANOTHER
LOW ENTERING THE GULF A FEW DAYS LATER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WINDS OVER THE GULF, AND FOR LAND AREAS FROM BARANOF ISLAND
SOUTHWARD, WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FRIDAY AND THEN ONCE AGAIN BECOME
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
/18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THRUSDAY/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS STARTING TO TURN TO THEIR SEA BREEZE DIRECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS A
FRONT IS APPROACHING COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NW FROM CANADA
WILL START TO BRING MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS STARTING
ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD. THE ONSET TIME WAS DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS WITH THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE. VIS AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE THIS
EVENING OR LATER WITH CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH DROPPING SLOWLY
AFTER THE DRY PATTERN WE HAD RECENTLY. THE NORTH MAY NOT SEE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR EVEN UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAHN/PAGY AND LATER STILL FO PAYA. SEA BREEZES WILL
SWITCH TO THE S-SE WITH THE FRONT.
MARINE
(GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR HAIDA GWAII, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS UP TO
20 KTS AND WAVES UP TO 10 FEET OCCURRING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THE DIXON ENTRANCE. WAVEHEIGHTS FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER
COAST WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE FROM 7 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 4 TO 6
FT BY THURSDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH OUR AREA AND SEND A FRONT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT, WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 4 FT EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY HIGHER FOR AREAS
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO SET- UP, AND LEAD TO GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW.MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
UPDATE...FERRIN
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...MUSALL/GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page