204
FXAK67 PAJK 032314
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
314 PM AKDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS HIGH, REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS RETURN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- RAIN POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FAVORED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE AK AS IT HAS MOVED TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT
TODAY. THERE HAS STILL BEEN WARM TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WARMEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RECORDED
OVER THE NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. YAKUTAT EVEN HAD A RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHING 79 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. ALONG WITH THIS
WE HAVE SEEN MANY AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. OFTEN
THESE SEA BREEZES HAVE FOUGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING CREATING SPORADIC
AND GUSTY WINDS. AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA, WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR
CLARENCE STRAIT TOMORROW. THAT BEING SAID, GUSTY WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
OVERALL FORECASTED RAIN TOTALS REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH OVER A 48 HOUR
PERIOD WITH AROUND 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES OVER 24 HOURS, FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OR HEAVY
RAIN AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IDEAL FOR MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
BEHIND THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION, RAIN RATES WILL
DECREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED, BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY ONWARD, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WIDELY VARIES BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE GULF. GFS AND ESPECIALLY CANADIAN GUIDANCE FAVOR
SLIDING THE LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII, WITH DRIER OFFSHORE
CONDITIONS NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE GFS ENSEMBLE
TREND HAS TRACKED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE INLINE WITH THE EC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS/FRONTS
PIVOTING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION AND BRING RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH CAP POPS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS ONLY MODERATE THIS FAR OUT DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS LOOKING TO BE DRIER AS MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY INTO CLARENCE STRAIT
ON SUNDAY. SEAS ALSO TREND UP IN THE EASTERN GULF AND OCEAN ENTRANCE
OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO 10 FT. A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON / BAND OF RAIN MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN
SHIELD, ALMOST REACHES TO THE YAKUTAT AREA ( WHICH HAS A CHANCE OF
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CEILING ARE ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AND WILL LIKELY SEE THEM MOVE DOWN TO PERHAPS 2000-3000 FEET BEFORE
SUNSET, AND THEN WILL SEE THAT SPREAD NORTH TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. THAT LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION
HAZARD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. SEAS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN SLOWLY OVER
THE OUTSIDE WATERS, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL STILL
ONGOING. THE FRONTAL BANDS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAVE ARRIVED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. A
COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING WITH THE CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
WINDS HAS CAUSED SEVERAL MARINE SITES TO SPIKE UP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST HAVE BEEN SCULL ISLAND IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND SHIP
ISLAND IN CLARENCE STRAIT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND ARE
TRENDING UP THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SIMILARLY, SUNSHINE AND SEA BREEZES OUT OF THE SW EARLIER TODAY
SHIFTED TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...FERRIN
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