315
FXAK67 PAJK 041228
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
428 AM AKDT THU JUN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-RAIN RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH
-CHANCES OF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN IS SPREADING NORTHWARD AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH PRECIPITATION
LIKELY TO REACH THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH PWATS OF ~0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES WILL HELP KEEP PRECIP LARGELY
LIMITED TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.5 TO
1 INCH STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS (THROUGH
FRIDAY). THE FRONTAL BAND WILL STALL OVER THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
BY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND WEAKENING
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO LINGER EVEN AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AS THE PARENT LOW,
CURRENTLY SITUATED S OF THE PANHANDLE, SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE E AND
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER THE WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE, A NARROW
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS
CLOUD COVER KEEPS MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER 40S OR THE 50S DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES MUTED HOWEVER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S BECOMING THE DEFAULT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE
WINDS WILL EXHIBIT OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS AND PERIODS OF MORE
GUSTY WINDS AS FRONTAL BANDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH, THOUGH
GIVEN THE DISTINCT LACK OF STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS FAR NORTH
OF THE PARENT LOW, AM EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO CAP OUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AT ~20 TO 25 KT, WITH SKAGWAY BEING THE EXCEPTION WHICH
COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FUNNELED THROUGH
TAIYA INLET.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS
TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY ONWARD, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WIDELY VARIES BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE GULF. GFS AND ESPECIALLY CANADIAN GUIDANCE FAVOR
SLIDING THE LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII, WITH DRIER OFFSHORE
CONDITIONS NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THE GFS ENSEMBLE
TREND HAS TRACKED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE ONLINE WITH THE EC
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS/FRONTS
PIVOTING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE EC
SOLUTION AND BRING RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH CAP POPS AS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS ONLY MODERATE THIS FAR OUT DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS LOOKING TO BE DRIER AS MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE WITH
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ALONG THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY INTO CLARENCE STRAIT
ON SUNDAY. SEAS ALSO TREND UP IN THE EASTERN GULF AND OCEAN ENTRANCE
OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO 10 FT. A
DOWNWARD TREND IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AVIATION
A FRONT THAT IS MOVING S TO N THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
HAS SPREAD RAIN AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS FAR NORTH
AS ANGOON AS OF 4 AM. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE 500 TO 900 FT
CEILINGS AT KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, AND SITKA. AREAS N OF ANGOON
ARE STILL SEEING VFR CONDITIONS. THE RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
N THROUGH THE DAY REACHING ICY STRAIT, AND JUNEAU BY THIS MORNING
AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HAINES AND
SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND 2500
FT AROUND THE ICY STRAIT AREA, JUNEAU AND EVEN HAINES. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR VIS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL. WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE RAIN BAND STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. MEANWHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES NORTH,
AND YAKUTAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY VFR TODAY, BUT MAY SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT DUE TO MORE ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
ARE SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS TO 25 KT (MAINLY THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE) WHILE LIGHT IN OTHERS (THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EXCEPT
LYNN CANAL). GENERALLY WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS OUT OF
THE SOUTH BUT SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY.
MARINE
A LOW S OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE E INTO BC
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A REMNANT FRONTAL BAND FROM THE
LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE PANHANDLE BEFORE FALLING APART THROUGH
FRIDAY. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE E GULF OVER THE WEEKEND.
OUTER WATERS: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF THURSDAY AS A LOW S OF THE PANHANDLE TRAVERSES E. SEAS BEGIN
TO DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, SEAS IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7
FT UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD BACK TO 8 TO 10 FT. SW
SWELL OF 2-4 FT ON THURSDAY, WITH THE LARGEST SWELL IN THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SWELL DIMINISHES TO 1-2 FT ON
FRIDAY.
INNER WATERS: WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS SPIKING UPWARDS AS
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE THROUGH. LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON THE STRONGER SIDE, WITH THESE AREAS IN PARTICULAR
LIKELY TO SEE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT - OR EVEN 25 KT IN THE CASE OF
THE CLARENCE STRAIT OCEAN ENTRANCE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
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