552
FXAK67 PAJK 111741
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
941 AM AKDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION 18Z UPDATE:
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OFF
INTO CANADA, LEAVING BEHIND LOW CLOUDS, SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. CHECKING OUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SCATTERED ABOUT, GENERAL FEEL IS IFR/MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR.
CURRENT PROBLEM AREAS ARE ALONG THE COAST AND SOME INTERIOR
PORTIONS WITH PAYA REPORTING IFR CIGS AS OF 16Z THURSDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE COAST AND VFR
BECOMES MORE PROMINENT, THE EXCEPTION BEING PAYA WHERE WE WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON TO CIGS NEAR 1000 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REFORM, BRINGING MVFR CIGS
TO MOST OF THE COAST WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING IFR.
SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. FOLKS FLYING ELFIN COVE, SITKA, AND POW SHOULD ANTICIPATE
15 TO 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG EXPOSED SECTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 509 AM AKDT THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR THURSDAY WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OVER YAKUTAT.
- HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.
- LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND
BRINGS INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE OPEN GULF WEST OF 140W
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY, WITH FRONT
SPREADING RAIN EAST THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A SIMILAR WEATHER SETUP TO
YESTERDAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. CURRENTLY
SEEING A WEAK LOW PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS PASSING OVER YAKUTAT AND IS ALSO BRINGING
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESSES, DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO SE AK, WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT. FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY
AND QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S (LOW
70S POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE). TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHERLIES 10 TO 20
MPH INTO SKAGWAY. ASIDE FROM YAKUTAT, LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING, BUT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT,
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. A GALE FORCE LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SEND A FRONT AND DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING
YAKUTAT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
DETAILED AND ITS IMPACTS FOR SEAK IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST,
BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. YAKUTAT
WILL BE THE HIGHEST AFFECTED LOCATION WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
OUTCOME (50TH PERCENTILE) SHOWING 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS AT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 10% CHANCE THAT THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL
EXCEED 1.5 INCHES IN 6 HOURS FOR THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.
OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES ARE LIKELY TO SEE MODERATE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY MORNING. COMMUNITIES BETWEEN LYNN CANAL
AND FREDRICK SOUND ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AND WARMER ON SATURDAY, AS
A RIDGE LINGERS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S WITH OVERCAST SKIES.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WHOLE PANHANDLE, WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE NORTH. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WHICH
IS LIKELY TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LEADING TO
LARGELY STAGNANT CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
A MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO AIR
TRAVEL THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN COAST AND AROUND YAKUTAT. AS WITH YESTERDAY,
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY. ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING
LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CIGS AOB 2500 FT THROUGH THE
MORNING. THESE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER, A
RESURGENCE OF THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE OUTER COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, NOT MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS THE GULF REGARDING WIND AND SEAS. SEA STATE
REMAINS DOMINATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 SECONDS, 5 FT.
NORTHWEST WINDS FRESHEN UP ALONG THE COAST TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO
21 KT), ESPECIALLY ALONG PROMINENT CAPES LIKE CAPE OMMANEY INTO
CORONATION ISLAND. FRIDAY WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLACKEN AND TURN
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A GALE FORCE LOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY REACHING STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27 KT) BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MOST AREAS WEST
OF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS SUNDAY, WITH LOCALIZED GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS/CAPE SUCKLING. SOUTHERLY SEAS BUILD
TO 12 TO 14 FT WEST OF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS AS WELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): UNLIKE WEDNESDAY, PATCHY FOG IS MUCH LESS
PREVALENT THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS. SEA BREEZES
IN THE AFTERNOON REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINERS NAVIGATING ICY STRAIT INTO GLACIER BAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS COMING IN FROM CROSS SOUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH LYNN CANAL. FRIDAY WINDS LOOK TO START
DIMINISHING, LEAVING LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-643-644-651-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...STJ
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