656
FXAK67 PAJK 120540 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
- A FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A STRONG SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM...QUIET WEATHER IS RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING SHOWS AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
THURSDAY EVENING, AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. WHILE
THE CLOUD DECK COULD PARTIALLY REBUILD THURSDAY NIGHT, ANTICIPATE
IT TO RETREAT BACK OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE ONE NOTEWORTHY
EXCEPTION TO THE IMPROVING TREND HAS BEEN YAKUTAT, WHERE A
DECAYING BACKDOOR TROUGH IS BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS IS NOT
A PERMANENT STATE OF AFFAIRS, AND RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING, DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
STORE FOR THE NORTHERN GULF AS WELL. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT FOR YAKUTAT, AS WELL AS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
(FOR AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND), BUT ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL
SWIFTLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING UNDER THE MID- JUNE SUN.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO WEATHER REGIMES, AS DRIER WEATHER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL OVERRUN THE NE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE
MORNING. EXPECT RAIN COULD ALSO IMPACT THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE
OMMANEY NORTHWARDS, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRIES TO PUSH INLAND, AND THINK THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTH/CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH. A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (SPECIFICALLY
YAKUTAT), BEFORE MOVING E THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE INITIALLY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF A LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG IT, AND HOW FAR WEST SAID LOW VEERS AS IT ARRIVES IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO FALL
FOR YAKUTAT PROPER OVER 48 HOURS, WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND UP TO 1 INCH FOR THE SOUTH.
WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE DRY SEASON, THEY
REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER WHEN COMPARED TO STRONGER FALL
SYSTEMS, AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO BREAK EVEN 1 YEAR
ATMOSPHERIC RETURN INTERVALS (ARIS). FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION,
SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HEAVILY INDEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, WITH
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD DECK BREAKS LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S, OR EVEN 70S, ON FRIDAY. CONVERSELY, THE 50S OR LOW 60S
REMAIN LIKELY FOR ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUD DECK MANAGES TO
LINGER.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DUE TO THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE PANHANDLE, AND BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT FROM CURRENT
MODEL RUNS, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN THE YAKUTAT AREA COULD SEE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO LATE MORNING SUNDAY, STILL WITH A
90% CONFIDENCE THAT NO MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL FALL IN A 6 HOUR
PERIOD DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ONCE IT STARTS. WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH
SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. YAKUTAT COULD SEE HIGHER
WINDS, UP TO 20 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTS WINDS GET FUNNELED ALONG THE
COAST LINE.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AIMED AT THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO FALL SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CALMER ONSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY THAT IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE CONSISTENT RAIN TO TURN TO A SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. A VERY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING, CAUSING SOME DROPS IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN REMAINS
PRESENT.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION...MOSTLY MVFR OR BETTER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE
THE NE GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT WHERE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE
FROM 600 TO 800 FT FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 1 AM TONIGHT
BRINGING ISOLATED LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR. ANY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. NE GULF COAST WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE CLOUDS WITH SOME PARTS OF THE OUTER COAST FARTHER SE
JOINING IN THE LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT DUE TO MARINE LAYER CLOUD
REDEVELOPMENT. THESE AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT LEAST BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY.
MARINE...OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS RELATIVELY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE WITH STRONGEST NWLY WINDS OF 15 KT ALONG THE OUTER
COAST ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS CAUSING LIGHT
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FROM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WITH THAT FRONT
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS TO 30KT NEAR THE
TYPICAL BARRIER JET NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS EARLY SATURDAY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 12 FEET. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, CAUSING WIND SPEEDS, AGAIN IN THE BARRIER JET AREA, TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 35-45KT AND SEAS BUILDING 14-17 FEET GOING
INTO SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF TRENDING DOWN.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE STARTING TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD FRIDAY WITH
LIGHTER DRAINAGE WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS SHOULD SEE WIND DIRECTIONS TURN OUT OF
THE NW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN SLOWLY BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. ONCE THE RIDGE HAS PASSED AND THE LARGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY THE
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS ON SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WIND GUSTS COULD
BE STRONGER WITH THAT FRONT AS WELL.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-642>644-651-661-662.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...FERRIN
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