926
FXAK67 PAJK 121447
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
647 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
- A FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY,
AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING SHOWS CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AND ACROSS FREDERICK SOUND, WHILE A
MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE OUTER COAST. ALONG THE INNER
CHANNELS, A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET PREVENTED
MANY AREAS FROM COOLING QUITE AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE
MARINE LAYER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETREAT BACK OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY, AND THE RESIDUAL CLOUD DECK OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR UP AND MIX OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS
WITH THURSDAY, YAKUTAT IS THE ONE NOTEWORTHY EXCEPTION TO THIS
EXPECTED IMPROVING TREND, WHERE A DECAYING BACKDOOR TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BRING DRIZZLE AND SEED A CLOUD LAYER AOB 500 FEET.
THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO WEATHER REGIMES, AS DRIER WEATHER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVES WAY TO RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL OVERRUN THE NE GULF COAST EARLY IN THE
MORNING. EXPECT RAIN COULD ALSO IMPACT THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE
OMMANEY NORTHWARDS, ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
TRIES TO PUSH INLAND, AND THINK THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTH/CENTRAL
PANHANDLE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH. A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (SPECIFICALLY YAKUTAT),
BEFORE MOVING E THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REST OF
THE PANHANDLE. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
INITIALLY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT,
AND HOW FAR WEST SAID LOW VEERS AS IT ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO FALL FOR YAKUTAT PROPER
OVER 48 HOURS, WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, AND UP TO 1 INCH FOR THE SOUTH. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE DRY SEASON, THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER
WHEN COMPARED TO STRONGER FALL SYSTEMS, AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BREAK EVEN 1 YEAR ATMOSPHERIC RETURN INTERVALS (ARIS).
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HEAVILY INDEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, WITH
AREAS WHERE THE CLOUD DECK BREAKS LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S, OR EVEN 70S, ON FRIDAY. CONVERSELY, THE 50S OR LOW 60S
REMAIN LIKELY FOR ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUD DECK MANAGES TO
LINGER.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DUE TO THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE PANHANDLE, AND BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT FROM CURRENT
MODEL RUNS, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN THE YAKUTAT AREA COULD SEE IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO LATE MORNING SUNDAY, STILL WITH A
90% CONFIDENCE THAT NO MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL FALL IN A 6 HOUR
PERIOD DURING THIS TIME. MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ONCE IT STARTS. WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH
SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE SHIFTING
WINDS WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 MPH. YAKUTAT COULD SEE HIGHER
WINDS, UP TO 20 MPH WITH STRONG GUSTS WINDS GET FUNNELED ALONG THE
COAST LINE.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AIMED AT THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO FALL SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CALMER ONSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY THAT IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE CONSISTENT RAIN TO TURN TO A SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. A VERY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING, CAUSING SOME DROPS IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN REMAINS
PRESENT.
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY/
THERE IS SOME PATCHY MARINE LAYER
LOW STRATUS IMPACTING PAYA, PASI, & PAKW THIS FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAINLY MVFR & IFR CATEGORY CIGS WITH PAYA EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST
CIGS. PAYA HAS PERIODICALLY GOTTEN AS LOW AS LIFR CIGS & VISS WITH
SOME INTERMITTENTLY LOWER CIGS & PATCHY FG EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THESE AREAS INTO THE
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AS THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO BREAK UP &
RETREAT AS THE OVERALL LOWER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SFC
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER BENIGN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ENHANCED AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE APPROACHING 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AROUND PAGY &
TAIYA INLET. LLWS VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS(SOUTHEAST ALASKAN INNER CHANNELS): THE AXIS OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
UNDER IT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES AS A COUPLE OF GALE
FORCE FRONTS APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING WINDS AROUND CROSS SOUND UP TO AROUND 20 KT
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 4-5 FT FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS APPROACH. FOR THE NEXT WORK-WEEK,
MORE RIDGING BUILDS-IN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS, BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 FT OR LESS,
ONCE AGAIN.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA): A COUPLE OF GALE FORCE
FRONTS APPROACH & MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
WINDS UP TO AROUND BETWEEN 35 & 35 KT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, INCREASING SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 8 & 13 FT WITH BETWEEN A 4 & 7 FT SOUTHERLY
SWELL. THE SUBSEQUENT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING WINDS UP TO BETWEEN AROUND 30 & 40
KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A BARRIER JET THAT LOOKS TO SET UP BETWEEN AROUND
ICY BAY & CAPE ST. ELIAS, PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40 & 45 KT.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT AT BETWEEN
AROUND 14 & 19 FT ALONG WITH A 6 TO 13 FT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHEST SWELL VALUES IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WITH THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD. FOR THE NEXT WORK-
WEEK, MORE RIDGING BUILDS-IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF, BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS OF 15-20 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6
FT OR LESS, ONCE AGAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>643-661-662.
SHORT TERM...GFS/STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...JLC
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