671
FXAK67 PAJK 130607 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1007 PM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY.
- A FRONT ARRIVING ON SATURDAY BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER
WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTH.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM N TO S NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER COMES TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A GALE
FORCE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN GULF, AHEAD OF A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SE AK.
SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA, AS OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
ERODED AWAY WHAT WAS LEFT OF A MARINE LAYER EARLIER THIS MORNING.
ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A FEW BROKEN DECKS
FOR LOCATIONS LIKE GASTINEAU CHANNEL. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY
TO BE SIMILARLY PLEASANT.
THIS SITUATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH SATURDAY AS A GALE
FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. ALREADY, SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW STRENGTHENING
SOUTH OF KODIAK, EVEN AS THEY SWIFTLY MOVE NORTH. ASCAT WIND
PASSES ARE INDICATING THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF GALE
FORCE WINDS, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES UP, DRIER WEATHER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF SUMNER
STRAIT WITH RAIN AND WIND ESPECIALLY PREVALENT ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRIES TO PUSH INLAND,
AND THINK THAT MUCH OF THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL SEE LITTLE
TO NO RAIN FROM THIS INITIAL PUSH. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL TAKE AIM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST (SPECIFICALLY YAKUTAT), BEFORE MOVING E
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE HAS FALLEN INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE, BRINGING IT INITIALLY INTO YAKUTAT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE VEERING EAST INTO THE REST OF SE AK ON MONDAY. UPWARDS OF
2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TO FALL FOR YAKUTAT PROPER, WITH 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND UP TO
1-1.5 INCHES INCHES FOR THE SOUTH. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE DRY SEASON, THEY REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER
WHEN COMPARED TO STRONGER FALL SYSTEMS, AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BREAK EVEN 1 YEAR ATMOSPHERIC RETURN INTERVALS (ARIS).
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE JET STREAM LOOKS SET TO TAKE UP A RELATIVELY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO
BRING IN MORE PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE
LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES BEYOND FRIDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE
SIDE FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY CONTRAST WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S, AS DRIER WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS REMAIN UNTIL THE SECOND SYSTEM SWEEPS
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF, AND IT WILL BEGIN A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
APPROACH 70 FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
TUESDAY, WITH THE JET STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. IF THIS LOW
CAN DEVELOP, IT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLES KEEP RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT IT IS A SITUATION WORTH
MONITORING.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE TO RULE THE AVIATION WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. THOUGH SIGNS OF CHANGE ARE STARTING TO CREEP IN. A HIGH
CLOUD LAYER IS STARTING TO SWEEP THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT
WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT RAIN TO START UP ALONG
THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE DECISION NORTHWESTWARD AS EARLY AS 12Z
AND SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS FOR VIS AND CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG
THE OUTER COAST FROM AROUND CROSS SOUND NW TO CAPE SUCKLING WITH
MAINLY CEILING LOWERING TO AROUND 2500 FT OR SO WITH SOME ISOLATED
LOWER AREAS. NOT MUCH WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH MOST
OF THE WIND STAYING OFFSHORE THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT
COULD BE OBSERVED ALONG THE OUTER COAST MID MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A PERIOD IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH (TO VFR FOR AREAS THAT DID HAVE LOWER
CONDITIONS) TOWARD EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE
INCOMING FOR THE NORTH (ESPECIALLY AREAS W OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER)
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VIS AND CEILINGS DROPPING INTO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO HEAVIER RAIN RATES. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE (SOUTH
OF SUMNER STRAIT) WILL MAINLY STAY VFR THROUGH ALL OF THIS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF): FOR THE WEEKEND, GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST, FRESH SEAS AS HIGH AS 20 FT, AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
FURTHER DETAIL: FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE
COAST, WITH SEA STATE DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY SWELL 17 SECONDS AT 3
FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING LOW; THE MIGHTY TUG ARCTIC TITAN IS ALWAYS SHOWING SE
WINDS NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM
OF INTEREST IS NEAR 50N 152W AND MOVING NORTH, WITH ASCAT/OSCAT
SATELLITE WIND PASSES HIGHLIGHTING GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN FLANK. SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG OUR
COAST; ANTICIPATE NEAR-GALE FORCE TO STRONG BREEZES BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT.
THESE WINDS WILL EBB A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DON'T LET THIS
LULL YOU INTO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP
QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO START
SOMETIME NEAR 12 AM TO 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST
WINDS WEST OF THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE ST. ELIAS. THERE
COULD BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME JUST SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SUNDAY; KEEPING THINGS
SIMPLE, EXPECT SHORT PERIOD FRESH SEAS OF AT LEAST 17 FT TO AS
HIGH AS 20 FT NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS. AGAIN, THE HEAVIEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS AND EAST TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS. FOR FOLKS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST OF POW, EXPECT WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AND SEAS OF
9 TO 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS SLOWLY RAMP UP SATURDAY, REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY SUNDAY.
FURTHER DETAIL: FOR THE INSIDE, SEA BREEZES ARE THE MAIN THREAT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS LOOK LIGHTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A GALE FORCE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF, PULLING
THE WINDS UP AND OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. FOR THIS SURFACE PRESSURE
REGIME, THE MAIN PROBLEM AREAS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE CHATHAM STRAIT,
PERIL STRAIT, AND ICY STRAIT, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS OF
AT LEAST MODERATE BREEZES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS WIND UNTIL SUNDAY
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO JUMP ASHORE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE INSIDE.
A NOTE ON GLACIER BAY FOR SUNDAY: MARINERS NAVIGATING THE UPPER
ARMS OF GLACIER BAY SUNDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF AN OCCLUDING FRONT
MOVING OVER THE REGION. ANTICIPATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO BUILD SUNDAY
BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES OVER, WHICH COULD BRING PRETTY INTENSE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INLETS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH LIKE REID INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-661>663.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP
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