254
FXAK67 PAJK 131749
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
949 AM AKDT SAT JUN 13 2026
UPDATE.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AVIATION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND IS
SENDING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THIS SATURDAY
MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY,
BUT BRIEF DROPS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE
IN STRONGER SHOWERS THAT FORM. EARLY SUNDAY, ANOTHER FRONT
CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL SEND A STRONGER WAVE OF LOWER
CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR AROUND 12Z FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES,
AND DROP TO CIGS LESS THAN 1,000 FEET FOR YAKUTAT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES, LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH 35-40 KT WINDS EXPECTED
AROUND 2,000 FEET IN YAKUTAT AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, VFR, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING DOWN TO
MVFR, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE BULK
OF THE NEAR GALE-FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FALL PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT
(ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST FOR PLACES LIKE KLAWOCK), BUT
THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE 4-5K FT. SOME BREEZINESS ALONG THE
OUTER GULF COAST, BUT NOT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT IN THE WAY OF WINDS
OTHERWISE. BY LATE SUNDAY HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE
DETERIORATING AS ANOTHER, STRONGER SYSTEM, MOVES IN, WITH MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING POSSIBLE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 614 AM AKDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONT BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER WILL LINGER
IN THE SOUTH.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM N TO S NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD WARM
WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...THE CLEARER SKIES OF YESTERDAY ARE NO MORE, AS A
FRONT WAITS PATIENTLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF SE AK EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH CLOUDS FANNING OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
HAVE SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH WINDS PICKING
UP IN COASTAL WATERS AND LIGHT RAIN PUSHING INTO SITKA AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BRINGING SOME
ELEVATED WINDS AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT. THIS INITIAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
IT PUSHES INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SEEING LESS RAIN INITIALLY. A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST (YAKUTAT), BEFORE WAVERING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OVER THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE.UPWARDS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY TO FALL FOR YAKUTAT PROPER, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND UP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
THE SOUTH. WHILE THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE DRY
SEASON, THEY REMAIN LACKLUSTER COMPARED TO FALL STORMS, AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT BREAK 1 YEAR ANNUAL RETURN INTERVALS
(ARIS). BEYOND SUNDAY, THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
AND THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE SIDE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY CONTRAST
WILL LIKELY STILL REACH THE 60S AND 70S, AS DRIER WEATHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS REMAIN UNTIL THE
SECOND SYSTEM SWEEPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE HEAVIEST RAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF, AND IT WILL BEGIN A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
APPROACH 70 FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
TUESDAY, WITH THE JET STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP. IF THIS LOW
CAN DEVELOP, IT WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLES KEEP RAIN
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
LOW PRESSURE FORMING IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT IT IS A SITUATION WORTH
MONITORING.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/...A SERIES OF GALE FORCE FRONTS
WILL APPROACH & PUSH THROUGH, BRINGING THE MOST IMPACTS TO THE
NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE PANHANDLE & OUTER COAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR THE NORTHERN 3/4 & THE OUTER COAST, EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO PRIMARILY DIP DOWN INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NE GULF COAST AREAS, INCLUDING PAYA, MAY PERIODICALLY DIP
INTO THE IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AS THEY WILL BE RECEIVING THE BRUNT
OF THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, OF WHICH THE 2ND ONE
WILL BE BRINGING WITH IT A FAST-MOVING AR(ATMOSPHERIC RIVER)
AIMED RIGHT AT THE PAYA AREA. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR SFC
WINDS, THEY WILL GET A LITTLE BREEZY DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING PAGY, & WINDS WILL BE
RATHER GUSTY FOR PAYA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE 2ND
FRONT APPROACHES & BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE NE GULF COAST.
CENTERED ALOFT AT AROUND 2 KFT, LLWS MAGNITUDES UP TO AROUND 35 KT
OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE...
INSIDE WATERS(SOUTHEAST ALASKAN INNER CHANNELS): A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE INNER CHANNELS TODAY. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT, KEEPING
WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
UNDER IT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES AS A COUPLE OF GALE
FORCE FRONTS APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING WINDS AROUND CROSS SOUND UP TO AROUND 20 KT,
ENHANCED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF UP
TO 4-5 FT FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS APPROACH. FOR THE NEXT WORK-WEEK,
MORE RIDGING BUILDS-IN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS, BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 FT OR LESS,
ONCE AGAIN.
OUTSIDE WATERS(EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA): A COUPLE OF GALE FORCE
FRONTS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING WINDS
UP TO AROUND BETWEEN 25 & 35 KT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH INTO THE DAY
ON TODAY, INCREASING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 8 & 13
FT WITH BETWEEN A 4 & 7 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE SUBSEQUENT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING
WINDS UP TO BETWEEN AROUND 30 & 40 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A BARRIER JET
THAT LOOKS TO SET UP JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN AROUND ICY BAY & CAPE
ST. ELIAS, PEAKING OUT BETWEEN 40 & 45 KT IN MAGNITUDE. SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT AT BETWEEN AROUND 14 & 19
FT ALONG WITH A 6 TO 13 FT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH THE
HIGHEST SWELL VALUES IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD. FOR THE NEXT WORK-WEEK, MORE
RIDGING BUILDS-IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS
OF 15-20 KT OR LESS & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 FT OR LESS,
ONCE AGAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...GFS/MUSALL
MARINE...JLC
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