972
FXAK67 PAJK 141331
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
531 AM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD
WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FAST-MOVING & WEAKENING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
REGION, INCLUDING YAKUTAT, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM,
WHICH IS CONTINUING TO BRING UP TO GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE
YAKUTAT AREA THIS MORNING, WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, GIVING
THE REST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AS TIME PROGRESSES & IT PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD. A
FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS-IN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF & THEN THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT IT AFTER IT DEPARTS &
FALLS APART. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS & MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SHOWERS IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL LEAD TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WITH GENERALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, SEABREEZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE BRINGS SINKING AIR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
THE ORGANIZED FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
BRINGING MOST LOCATIONS DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS. VIS IS EXPECTED
TO BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY AT PAYA, AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE SUN RISES, BRING MVFR TO VFR CIGS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PROMINENT
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RAIN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF
MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR TO
IFR OVERNIGHT. GUST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH WIND SHEAR AT PAYA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
MARINE
THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS AS THE MOST RECENT FRONT MOVES ONTO AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. GULF WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 8 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALSO
LOOK TO DECREASE FROM GALE FORCE TO 15-20KTS SUSTAINED IN THE GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER OVER NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS WELL. THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM A SE DIRECTION TO NW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM STRAIT, AND CLARENCE STRAIT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED, UP TO 15-20KTS SUSTAINED WITH A
SOUTHERN COMPONENT, THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS ENERGY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS IN CHATHAM SHOULD CALM BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN CANADA JUST NORTH OF
SKAGWAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL TO REMAIN
STRONGER, 10-15KTS SE, THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO CHANNEL
UP DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
BRINGING WINDS THAT COULD REACH UP TO 25KTS SE. THESE WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER NIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS ON TUESDAY IN LYNN
CANAL COULD REACH UP TO 15-20KTS SE AGAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-053-641>643-661-662.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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