027
FXAK67 PAJK 141822 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 AM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHORT TERM UPDATE
INCREASED QPF A BIT FOR REST OF TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULFAK MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING/GRADUALLY WEAKENING FRONTAL OCCLUSION. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE NEAR AN INCH OF MODERATE RAINFALL (AT TIMES) WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AN INCH AND A HALF OR SLIGHTLY MORE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MARINE UPDATE
WE HAVE LIKELY JUST GONE PAST THE PERIOD OF PEAK
WINDS FOR CAPE ST. ELIAS AND FOR THE NORTHERN GULFAK COASTAL
WATERS TO THE WEST OF YAKUTAT AND THE GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN GULFAK
WATERS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE AND OVER THE INSIDE WATERS THE HIGHEST
WINDS BEING REPORTED IS AT ROCKY ISLAND (POINT COUVERDEN
EASTERNMOST ICY STRAIT) FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS ALONG STEPHENS PASSAGE (SCULL ISLAND) AT
20 TO 25 KTS. WE STILL EXPECT MOST WINDS OVER THE INSIDE WATERS TO
INCREASE AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES IN OFF THE EASTERN
GULFAK...WITH 15 TO 20 KTS ON AVERAGE MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING (GENERALLY
WITHIN FORECAST PARAMETERS).
AVIATION UPDATE
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING/WEAKENING FRONTAL
OCCLUSION, WE CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL (VISIBILITIES 2-4 MILES AT
TIME) FROM YAKUTAT SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO JUST NORTH OF
SITKA. THAT AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS AND RAINFALL WILL SHIFT INLAND
FIRST FOR AREAS ALONG ICY STRAIT TO JUNEAU AND NORTHWARD THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS AND PERIODICALLY LOWER
VISIBILITIES TO 1SM) NOTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES UNDER A THINNER MID/UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY GET REPLACES WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODS OF IFR
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
THOSE CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING MONDAY. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 531 AM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2026.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD
WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/...A FAST-MOVING & WEAKENING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
REGION, INCLUDING YAKUTAT, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM,
WHICH IS CONTINUING TO BRING UP TO GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE
YAKUTAT AREA THIS MORNING, WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, GIVING
THE REST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH LIGHTER
RAINFALL AS TIME PROGRESSES & IT PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD. A
FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS-IN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF & THEN THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE FRONT IT AFTER IT DEPARTS &
FALLS APART. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS & MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SHOWERS IN FROM THE WEST.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL LEAD TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY. ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. WITH GENERALLY WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS, SEABREEZES WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE BRINGS SINKING AIR NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... THE ORGANIZED FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
BRINGING MOST LOCATIONS DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS. VIS IS EXPECTED
TO BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT, ESPECIALLY AT PAYA, AS PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE SUN RISES, BRING MVFR TO VFR CIGS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PROMINENT
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE RAIN PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF
MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO DROP CIGS TO MVFR TO
IFR OVERNIGHT. GUST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH WIND SHEAR AT PAYA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
MARINE... THE GENERAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS AS THE MOST RECENT FRONT MOVES ONTO AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. GULF WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 8 FEET
THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALSO
LOOK TO DECREASE FROM GALE FORCE TO 15-20KTS SUSTAINED IN THE GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER OVER NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS WELL. THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM A SE DIRECTION TO NW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE.
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM STRAIT, AND CLARENCE STRAIT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED, UP TO 15-20KTS SUSTAINED WITH A
SOUTHERN COMPONENT, THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS ENERGY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS IN CHATHAM SHOULD CALM BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN CANADA JUST NORTH OF
SKAGWAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL TO REMAIN
STRONGER, 10-15KTS SE, THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO CHANNEL
UP DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
BRINGING WINDS THAT COULD REACH UP TO 25KTS SE. THESE WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER NIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS ON TUESDAY IN LYNN
CANAL COULD REACH UP TO 15-20KTS SE AGAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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