942
FXAK67 PAJK 150703 AAB
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1002 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A
STRONGER SYSTEM PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
- SLOW DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE NEXT WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD
WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE, CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST SAW THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN SUNDAY MORNING, RECEIVING AROUND 2
INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT IS NOW MOVING INLAND UP
NORTH, ALLOWING THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, LIGHT RAIN HAS
REACHED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND, BUT SHOULD LARGELY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
QPF WAS BUMPED FOR KETCHIKAN AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE, AS THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE INTERIOR
PANHANDLE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, REACHING UP TO 1.5 INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE OUTER COAST, BUT MAY LINGER FOR THE INTERIOR
PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE GULF WILL ALLOW CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET CUT
OFF THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY. OTHER NOTABLE CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST WAS MAINLY CENTERED AROUND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY, AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT HAS LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
HIGHS IN THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SOME CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW, AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE.
RIGHT NOW, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND QUICK MOVING. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW, AND LEAD TO
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST, BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF WHERE
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION...MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MANY PLACES REPORTING MVFR OR VFR CEILINGS AND VIS THIS
EVENING. YAKUTAT REMAINS THE EXCEPTION WITH IFR CONDITIONS OF 600
FT CEILINGS AND 1.25 MILE VIS. AS OF 9 AM THE MAIN BAND OF
RAINFALL HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM AROUND
FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD THOUGH SOME LIGHTER RAINFALL IS IN THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL. THERE IS ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN
COMING FOR THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK LOW MOVES NE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CEILINGS AND VIS
DROPPING TO MVFR IF THEY ARE NOT THERE ALREADY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST OTHER AREAS MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY BEING THE
NORM FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND ALONG SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. THOSE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN STAY MOSTLY
LOW THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT, AS A FRONT MOVES EAST AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA BY MONDAY. CURRENT SE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN
AND TURN OUT OF THE NW THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DOWN TOWARDS 10-15 KT, WITH SEAS LIKEWISE SUBSIDING FROM
9-12 FT DOWN TOWARDS 5-7 FT. BY TUESDAY, FLOW TURNS MORE W, WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KT. SWELL WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HEIGHTS OF 4-8 FT WILL DIMINISH TO 2-3 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BRING NW FLOW IN THE SE GULF AND DIXON ENTRANCE UP TO 20-25 KT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE INCREASING AS AN ADVANCING
SYSTEM RESULTS IN WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE S AND RAMPING UP TO
15-20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BACK TOWARDS 10-15 KT (STILL OUT OF THE S),
AND THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DOWN TO 5-10 KT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL (WHICH WILL SEE S
WIND OF 15-20 KT), AND CLARENCE STRAIT (NW WIND 10-15 KT).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
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