833
FXAK67 PAJK 151438
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
638 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE FOR MONDAY WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS THE PANHANDLE.
- DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE THIS WEEK; WITH WIDESPREAD WARMER
WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING THE PANHANDLE IS DEPARTING THE REGION, TODAY, & A
FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING-IN BEHIND THAT. THIS
WILL BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES & DECREASING CLOUDS, BUT THE
OVERALL ONSHORE-FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
& MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AS WE PUSH
THROUGH MID-WEEK, IT WILL DRY & WARM MORE, & CLOUDS WILL FURTHER
DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES &
WARMER AIR ADVECTS TOWARD & OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. SOME CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW, AND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME AN
OPEN WAVE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE PANHANDLE.
RIGHT NOW, THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND QUICK MOVING. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW, AND LEAD TO
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST, BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF WHERE
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION
WIDE SPREAD DETERIORATED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH SEVERAL EXCEPTIONS:
PAGS, PAJN, PASI, AND PAWG. WIDE SPREAD SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE
CAUSING CIGS AND VISS TO FLUCTUATE GREATLY AS PERIODS OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN MOVES OVER VARIOUS SITES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
OVERALL, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR TO VFR AS THE MORNING GOES ON. TAFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHICH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE COULD SEE
RAIN TONIGHT OR LOWER CLOUD DECKS DEVELOP.
MARINE
THE STRONGEST DRIVER OF WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IS
GOING TO BE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BRINGING HEIGHTENED WINDS
MAINLY TO LYNN CANAL AROUND 12-15KTS SE SUSTAINED. WINDS IN
CLARENCE STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE ELEVATED EARLY THIS
MORNING, 17-22KT SE AND INCREASING TO 20-25KT AS YOU MOVE CLOSER
TO DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY TO 10-15KTS BY TONIGHT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY OVER CANADA, CAUSING NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO
SEE WINDS AS HIGH AS 20KT SE. WEDNESDAY BRINGS OVERALL CALMER
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD.
THE GULF WATERS REMAIN MOSTLY CALM AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS
THE REMAINING ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY NW IN DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY BRINGS HEIGHTENED WINDS AROUND PROMINENT CAPES IN THE
AREA, UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED. CROSS SOUND COULD ALSO SEE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 20KTS AS WELL DUE TO CHANNELING AROUND CAPE SPENCER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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