476
FXAK67 PAJK 152354
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKDT MON JUN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEPARTS THE PANHANDLE.
- DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER,
BUT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
PERIODS OF RAIN LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AS ONSHORE FLOW TURNS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. A LINGERING ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF HIT-OR-MISS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT EXPECT THAT THE ONLY PLACES WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL BE WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE PANHANDLE -
INCLUDING JUNEAU. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH
THE 50S OR THE LOW 60S BEING THE DEFAULT STATE OF AFFAIRS. WINDS
WILL BE ON A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND, BARRING PLACES LIKE SKAGWAY
AND LYNN CANAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
REMNANTS OF A LOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. RIGHT NOW, THE
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW, BUT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE
AND CLEARING SKIES, SOME PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS
OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST, BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS
(15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. MONDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
TRACKS INLAND, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH
ISOLATED AREAS DOWN TO IFR AND CIGS AOB 2000FT. NOT ANTICIPATING
LONG LASTING IMPROVEMENT WITH REMNANTS OF THE LOW GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW
LEVELS, EXPECTING CONTINUED PERIODS OF LOWERED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS AOB 1000FT BEFORE ON- SHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
15Z, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR
SKAGWAY, HYDABURG, AND KETCHIKAN, AROUND 15KTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING LIGHT WINDOWS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING ONCE MORE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE GULF IS CURRENTLY BRINGING CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AND A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES IN THE EASTERN
GULF. CALM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SOON BE OVERTAKEN BY THE FRESH
BREEZES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT ARE STEADILY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT,
INFLUENCING WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE, MAINLY NEAR CHANNEL
ENTRANCES AND THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. THE SWATH OF FRESH BREEZES
WILL PUSH INTO THE COAST AND DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF AND DIXON
ENTRANCE SEEING FRESH BREEZES WHILE THE REST OF THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY CALM. 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW THE AREAS OF
STRONGER WINDS, WITH 4 TO 5 FT EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL AT 2 TO 3 FT CONTINUES AT A PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS MONDAY, INCREASING AS A FRESH SWATH OF
WESTERLY WINDS MOVES INTO THE COASTLINE AND FUNNELS INTO THE
CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INFLUENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE CHANNELS TUESDAY, WHICH MAY
ALSO BE STRENGTHENED BY WEAK SEA BREEZES ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO A WESTERLY
WIND, PARTICULARLY THROUGH CROSS SOUND AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
ICY STRAIT, AS WELL AS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES SUCH AS PERIL STRAIT,
MAY FEEL FRESH BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, ESPECIALLY TAIYA INLET,
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND STEADILY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 2 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CHANNEL
ENTRANCES AND THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY SEE 3 TO 4 FT AT THE
TIMES OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page