242
FXAK67 PAJK 160654
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1054 PM AKDT MON JUN 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAFS
AS WELL AS AN ADDITION TO THE LONG TERM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 354 PM AKDT MON JUN 15
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEPARTS THE PANHANDLE.
- DRYING TREND FROM NW TO SE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER,
BUT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...PERIODS OF RAIN LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AS ONSHORE FLOW TURNS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NW. A LINGERING ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF HIT-OR-MISS RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT EXPECT THAT THE ONLY PLACES WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL BE WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE PANHANDLE -
INCLUDING JUNEAU. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, AND SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE, WITH
THE 50S OR THE LOW 60S BEING THE DEFAULT STATE OF AFFAIRS. WINDS
WILL BE ON A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND, BARRING PLACES LIKE SKAGWAY
AND LYNN CANAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
REMNANTS OF A LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW, THE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL
SUPPRESS IT AND KEEP THE WEAK SYSTEM OFFSHORE. A SYSTEM TO THE N/NE
IN CANADA WILL ALSO BE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
DEPENDING LARGELY ON IF ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO IMPACT THESE
AREAS. AT THE LEAST IT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE
BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO LATE WEEK, SOME PERIODS
OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER IS LOOKING TO SET UP JUST
OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN THE COASTLINE TO PARTS OF POW ALONG THE
WEST COAST, WHILE SKIES BEGIN CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
OFFSHORE NW-LY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT
SOME STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF POW DOWN TO
NEAR HAIDA GWAII. SOME LAND AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN
THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER
THE PLACE THIS EVENING AS RAIN CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CONTINUE TO VARY DRASTICALLY
WITH THE RAIN FROM THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING LOW. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
STARTING TO SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING HOURS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE ANY PLACE
THAT DOES CLEAR OUT, FOG COULD QUICKLY DEVELOP DUE TO MOST PLACES
REMAINING NEAR 100% RH. AREAS THAT CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHTER WINDS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUCH AS PETERSBURG MIGHT TAKE LONGER TO
IMPROVE TOMORROW WHILE PLACES SUCH AS SKAGWAY COULD SEE EARLIER
IMPROVEMENTS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE GULF IS CURRENTLY BRINGING CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AND A SWATH OF NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES IN THE EASTERN
GULF. CALM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LINGERING ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL SOON BE OVERTAKEN BY THE FRESH
BREEZES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE RIDGE THAT ARE STEADILY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT,
INFLUENCING WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE, MAINLY NEAR CHANNEL
ENTRANCES AND THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. THE SWATH OF FRESH BREEZES
WILL PUSH INTO THE COAST AND DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY BREEZES BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF AND DIXON
ENTRANCE SEEING FRESH BREEZES WHILE THE REST OF THE GULF REMAINS
RELATIVELY CALM. 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW THE AREAS OF
STRONGER WINDS, WITH 4 TO 5 FT EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL AT 2 TO 3 FT CONTINUES AT A PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS MONDAY, INCREASING AS A FRESH SWATH OF
WESTERLY WINDS MOVES INTO THE COASTLINE AND FUNNELS INTO THE
CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INFLUENCE MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE CHANNELS TUESDAY, WHICH MAY
ALSO BE STRENGTHENED BY WEAK SEA BREEZES ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO A WESTERLY
WIND, PARTICULARLY THROUGH CROSS SOUND AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
ICY STRAIT, AS WELL AS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES SUCH AS PERIL STRAIT,
MAY FEEL FRESH BREEZES PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, ESPECIALLY TAIYA INLET,
WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND STEADILY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 2 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CHANNEL
ENTRANCES AND THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY SEE 3 TO 4 FT AT THE
TIMES OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...MUSALL/CONTINO
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...ZTK
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