124
FXAK67 PAJK 161450
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
650 AM AKDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE PANHANDLE & BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP TODAY.
- GENERAL DRYING CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER, BUT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR THE PERIOD. A FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
CONTINUING TO BUILD-IN. THIS WILL BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES &
DECREASING CLOUDS, BUT THE OVERALL ONSHORE-FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS & MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & THE POTENTIAL
LOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND FOR THE OUTER COAST THROUGH
EARLY WEEK. AS WE PUSH THROUGH MID-WEEK, IT WILL DRY & WARM MORE,
& CLOUDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES A BIT & WARMER AIR ADVECTS TOWARD & OVER
THE REGION. THEN, A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS & ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE- IMPACT FOR THE REGION.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
REMNANTS OF A LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW, THE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL
SUPPRESS IT AND KEEP THE WEAK SYSTEM OFFSHORE. A SYSTEM TO THE N/NE
IN CANADA WILL ALSO BE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS,
DEPENDING LARGELY ON IF ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO IMPACT THESE
AREAS. AT THE LEAST IT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE
BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO LATE WEEK, SOME PERIODS
OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER IS LOOKING TO SET UP JUST
OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN THE COASTLINE TO PARTS OF POW ALONG THE
WEST COAST, WHILE SKIES BEGIN CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
OFFSHORE NW-LY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT
SOME STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF POW DOWN TO
NEAR HAIDA GWAII. SOME LAND AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN
THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION
AS THE SUN RISES AND PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO CLEAR
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. PAHN AND PAGY BOTH HAVE IFR CIGS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO SHOOT UP TO VFR CONDITIONS AS SOON AS THE WINDS TURN
ON. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH LOCATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS (20-30%)
REMAINS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE PRESENT MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF AND CALMER WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: WINDS IN THE GULF THIS MORNING HAVE A STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT, SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD
RANGING FROM AROUND 12-17KTS. THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS IN THE OUTER
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS RANGE OF ABOUT 10-15KTS WSW TO
WNW. WINDS IN THE INNER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM TO 5-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE MAINLY WEST IN DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4-6FT TODAY AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY AS THE CALM PATTERN SETS IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS GENERALLY CALMER WINDS AS WELL, EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 12KTS AND BE MORE NW IN DIRECTION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING
SOME FUNNELING ACTION AROUND PROMINENT CAPES ALONG THE COAST,
BUMPING WINDS AS HIGH AS 20KTS IN THESE AREAS.
INSIDE: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THINGS ARE
ALREADY HEATING UP IN LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING WITH ROCKY ISLAND
BLOWING 16KTS. WINDS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS THE INCREASE OF WINDS
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, 15-20KTS SE, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. STEPHENS PASSAGE AND CLARENCE STRAIT COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED WINDS, 15-20KT SE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BRING LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AGAIN FOR THURSDAY, 15-20KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...MUSALL/CONTINO
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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