048
FXAK67 PAJK 161947 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1147 AM AKDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
A FEW MARINE UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, WINDS
HAVE FLIPPED TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE WATER AND THROUGH THE TONGASS
NARROWS. THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAS SEEN WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING, WHICH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED
THROUGH LYNN CANAL, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND INTO TAIYA INLET. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS ANY SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE DIMINISHES, THOUGH
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY HOLD ONTO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOWERED CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE N PACIFIC WITH ON-SHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH CIGS AOB
5000FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS DOWN TO LIFR/IFR NEAR YAKUTAT UNDER
PERSISTENT SW-LY ON-SHORE WINDS. NOT ANTICIPATING LONG LASTING
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
SATURATED LOW LEVELS, EXPECTING RETURN OF LOWERED CEILINGS INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THINKING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE S PANHANDLE TERMINALS.
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND
KETCHIKAN, AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING ONCE MORE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 650 AM AKDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE PANHANDLE & BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP TODAY.
- GENERAL DRYING CLEARING TREND FROM NW TO SE THIS WEEK. ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER, BUT GENERALLY WIDESPREAD WARMER WEATHER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BENIGN WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD. A FLATTENED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD-IN. THIS WILL BRING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES & DECREASING CLOUDS, BUT THE OVERALL
ONSHORE-FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS & MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES & THE POTENTIAL LOW MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND FOR THE OUTER COAST THROUGH EARLY WEEK. AS WE PUSH THROUGH
MID-WEEK, IT WILL DRY & WARM MORE, & CLOUDS WILL FURTHER DECREASE
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES A BIT &
WARMER AIR ADVECTS TOWARD & OVER THE REGION. THEN, A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS & ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL
HAVE LITTLE- IMPACT FOR THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, REMNANTS OF A LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WESTERN GULF AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW, THE CHANCES
ARE FAIRLY LOW AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WILL SUPPRESS IT AND KEEP THE WEAK SYSTEM OFFSHORE. A
SYSTEM TO THE N/NE IN CANADA WILL ALSO BE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS, DEPENDING LARGELY ON IF ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO
IMPACT THESE AREAS. AT THE LEAST IT WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO LATE WEEK, SOME
PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE RIDGE SETS UP OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER IS LOOKING TO SET UP JUST
OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN THE COASTLINE TO PARTS OF POW ALONG THE
WEST COAST, WHILE SKIES BEGIN CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
OFFSHORE NW-LY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-
TO- MID 70S WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT
SOME STRONGER WINDS (15-20 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF POW DOWN TO
NEAR HAIDA GWAII. SOME LAND AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN
THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: WINDS IN THE GULF THIS MORNING HAVE A STRONG
WESTERLY COMPONENT, SHIFTING FROM SW TO NW AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD
RANGING FROM AROUND 12-17KTS. THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS IN THE OUTER
GULF ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THIS RANGE OF ABOUT 10-15KTS WSW TO
WNW. WINDS IN THE INNER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM TO 5-10KT
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE MAINLY WEST IN DIRECTION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4-6FT TODAY AND DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER
WEDNESDAY AS THE CALM PATTERN SETS IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS GENERALLY CALMER WINDS AS WELL, EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW 12KTS AND BE MORE NW IN DIRECTION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING
SOME FUNNELING ACTION AROUND PROMINENT CAPES ALONG THE COAST,
BUMPING WINDS AS HIGH AS 20KTS IN THESE AREAS.
INSIDE: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THINGS ARE
ALREADY HEATING UP IN LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING WITH ROCKY ISLAND
BLOWING 16KTS. WINDS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS THE INCREASE OF WINDS
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, 15-20KTS SE, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. STEPHENS PASSAGE AND CLARENCE STRAIT COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE ELEVATED WINDS, 15-20KT SE WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BRING LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AGAIN FOR THURSDAY, 15-20KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
UPDATE...ZTK
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...JLC
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