314
FXAK67 PAJK 162350
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS N LYNN CANAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH MID WEEK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
SHORT TERM
A RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BRINGING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
INTO THE PANHANDLE, TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND TURNING SOUTHERLY THROUGH LYNN CANAL. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW IS ALSO CONTINUING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR
THE PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY. A MID- LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BE ABLE TO AVOID
THIS AND CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD CLEARING WILL
ATTEMPT TO TAKE HOLD THURSDAY, THOUGH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO COMPLETELY FOLLOW. ONLY
LIGHT, WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS, AND THEY
MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE TO THE INTERIOR.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE TO MID TO HIGH 60S GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE HIGH 50S TO
LOW 60S THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE CONTINUED SHOWER POTENTIAL
AND CLOUD COVER. DIURNAL SEA BREEZES WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AND
WARMING, AND FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR LOCATIONS THAT STAY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REACH COOLER NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES. THE
MAIN LOCATION EXPECTED TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AROUND
PETERSBURG AND IN FREDERICK SOUND, BUT WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OFF
THE COAST, A DENSE MARINE LAYER PUSHING INTO OUTER COASTAL
COMMUNITIES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN
THE COASTLINE TO WESTERN PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES. SKIES BEGIN
CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE OFFSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO
LATE WEEK, SOME PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON'T LOOK TOO WARM (<15 C AT 850 MB),
SO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THIS WEEKEND, BUT SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS (20-25 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST OF POW TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII. AS OF NOW, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOWERED CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OUT OF THE N PACIFIC WITH ON-SHORE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH
CIGS AOB 5000FT WITH ISOLATED AREAS DOWN TO LIFR/IFR NEAR YAKUTAT
UNDER PERSISTENT SW-LY ON-SHORE WINDS. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS ALSO BEEN BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE PETERSBURG
AREA FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. NOT
ANTICIPATING LONG LASTING IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVERALL
THOUGH, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS,
EXPECTING RETURN OF LOWERED CEILINGS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THINKING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE S PANHANDLE TERMINALS.
STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND
KETCHIKAN, AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING ONCE MORE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. NO LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF HAS
BEEN SHIFTING OVER THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR
WESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEEING WESTERLY FRESH BREEZES IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF, BRINGING POCKETS OF STRONG BREEZES NEAR CAPE
DECISION AND THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN DIXON
ENTRANCE BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AGAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGING BUILDS. 5 TO 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DECREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT WEDNESDAY, BUT INCREASE AGAIN
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOUTHWESTERLY 3 FT SWELL
AT A PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 FT SWELL CONTINUES.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE CONTINUING
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SEEING WESTERLY WINDS, CLARENCE STRAIT SEEING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND LYNN CANAL SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS. AREAS
OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, SPECIFICALLY TAIYA INLET, HAVE SEEN WINDS
INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL MAY STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT A MODERATE BREEZE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PERSIST LIKE THIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE AREA OF
RIDGING IN THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD MORE, TURNING WINDS TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SEA BREEZES WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FOR AREAS ALONG THE WATER SEEING CLEARING SKIES,
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED, DECREASING IN
AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...ZTK
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