183
FXAK67 PAJK 171433
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
633 AM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS N LYNN CANAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY. THE ONE CHANGE THAT I DID DO TO THE
PACKAGE WAS TO CURB BACK THE 20 POPS THAT WERE THERE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO A DRY PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL BE ATTEMPTING
TO BREAK UP ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNNY BREAKS BUT SUSPECT THAT IT
WILL NOT REALLY HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY THURSDAY OVER WEDNESDAY AND A
LARGER BUMP TO THE 60S AND 70S (WARMEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE) ) ON FRIDAY. COASTAL COMMUNITIES NEAR THE GULF, MAY NOT
WARM AS MUCH AS THE FLOW AROUND THE GULF WILL PUSH SOME MARINE
LAYERS TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN
THE COASTLINE TO WESTERN PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES. SKIES BEGIN
CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE OFFSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO
LATE WEEK, SOME PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON'T LOOK TOO WARM (<15 C AT 850 MB),
SO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THIS WEEKEND, BUT SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS (20-25 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST OF POW TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII. AS OF NOW, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION
A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IS KEEPING LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IN BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO KEEP RISING THROUGH THE MORNING TO VFR CONDITIONS. A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY, ABOUT 30% OR LESS,
SO SHOWERY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH, SITES COULD DROP TO 2,500-3,000 FT
CIGS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE DAY
IS IMPROVING CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH INTO
THE NIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE
DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. THIS
LOOKS TO BRING WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GULF WITH
WINDS REACHING NO HIGHER THAN 15KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE
DIMINISHING TO 4 OR 5 FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CALMER WINDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND FUNNEL ALONG
PROMINENT CAPES BUILDING UP TO 20-25KTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO BUILD TO 8 FT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST BELOW 20KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY, STAYING AROUND 10-15KTS SE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TODAY LOOK TO REACH UP TO 10-15KTS NW
TODAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS LOOK TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS AS DAYTIME
HEATING PEAKS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BEFORE
FRIDAY BRINGS ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO LYNN CANAL, CLARENCE STRAIT,
AND CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT. SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN IN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF WILL
CHANNEL STRONGER WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND ICY STRAIT AND CROSS
SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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