747
FXAK67 PAJK 171907 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1107 AM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
MID MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
THERE IS GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 170NM SOUTH OF CAPE ST. ELIAS
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FORECAST FROM
THIS MORNING IS GENERALLY ON TRACK, BUT WINDS WERE INCREASED NEAR
KETCHIKAN IN THE S PANHANDLE AND FROM ELDRED ROCK TO TAIYA INLET
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. AS IT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE, EXPECTING GENERALLY LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO MVFR AT TIMES TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. IN TANDEM, A
WEAK WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ON THE BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE YUKON TERRITORY IS SENDING SOME CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500
FEET AND LOWER VISIBILITIES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY FOR YAKUTAT, AND
POTENTIALLY HAINES AND SKAGWAY AS WELL. AS THE GULF SURFACE LOW
PASSES TONIGHT, IT WILL WEAKEN, BUT STILL LIKELY BRING SOME LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA DOWN TO MVFR AND CONTINUED
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AFTER 15Z THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 633 AM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS N LYNN CANAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT / SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY. THE ONE CHANGE THAT I DID DO TO THE
PACKAGE WAS TO CURB BACK THE 20 POPS THAT WERE THERE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO A DRY PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL BE ATTEMPTING
TO BREAK UP ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNNY BREAKS BUT SUSPECT THAT IT
WILL NOT REALLY HAPPEN UNTIL FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY THURSDAY OVER WEDNESDAY AND A
LARGER BUMP TO THE 60S AND 70S (WARMEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE) ) ON FRIDAY. COASTAL COMMUNITIES NEAR THE GULF, MAY NOT
WARM AS MUCH AS THE FLOW AROUND THE GULF WILL PUSH SOME MARINE
LAYERS TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
FRIDAY, A MARINE LAYER WILL SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OF BARANOF DOWN
THE COASTLINE TO WESTERN PARTS OF PRINCE OF WALES. SKIES BEGIN
CLEARING FURTHER INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOONER THAN
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE OFFSHORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE BRINGING A TREND OF CLEARING SKIES INTO
LATE WEEK, SOME PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON'T LOOK TOO WARM (<15 C AT 850 MB),
SO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SEA BREEZES SET UP FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AS
CLOUDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THIS WEEKEND, BUT SOME STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS (20-25 KTS) IN THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST OF POW TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII. AS OF NOW, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MONDAY, A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF. THIS WILL DECREASE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
MARINE...OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE
DAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. THIS
LOOKS TO BRING WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GULF WITH
WINDS REACHING NO HIGHER THAN 15KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE
DIMINISHING TO 4 OR 5 FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CALMER WINDS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND FUNNEL ALONG
PROMINENT CAPES BUILDING UP TO 20-25KTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO BUILD TO 8 FT
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST BELOW 20KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY, STAYING AROUND 10-15KTS SE UNTIL THIS EVENING.
WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TODAY LOOK TO REACH UP TO 10-15KTS NW
TODAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS LOOK TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS AS DAYTIME
HEATING PEAKS, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BEFORE
FRIDAY BRINGS ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO LYNN CANAL, CLARENCE STRAIT,
AND CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT. SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN IN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF WILL
CHANNEL STRONGER WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT AND ICY STRAIT AND CROSS
SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK/NM
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...AGP/MUSALL
MARINE...AGP/MUSALL
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