610
FXAK67 PAJK 172340
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES, AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, AROUND 15 MPH OR LESS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ONGOING NEAR SKAGWAY WITH A COUPLE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS A BIT MORE ORGANIZED, KEEPING LOW-END RAIN
SHOWERS CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE N PANHANDLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY, ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND 15%
CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF LYNN CANAL
WITH SOME MEASURE OF A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT,
HOWEVER FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED SOME
LEVEL OF LIFT TO GET GOING, AKA TERRAIN INDUCED.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SE/E OUT
OF THE AREA, WITH OFF-SHORE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND SKIES
CLEARING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, SEA BREEZE
INDUCED WINDS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WITH THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA STRENGTHENING SATURDAY,
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE PANHANDLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THIS PATTERN, A
MARINE LAYER IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE GULF, THOUGH AS OF THIS
FORECAST IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE INNER CHANNELS DUE TO
FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE OUTER COAST. WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE RIDGE AXIS, DESCENDING DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WARM, THEREFORE AS OF THIS FORECAST,
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED ANY RECORDS.
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
GENERALLY DROP OFF AS THE RIDGE AXIS ROTATES OVER THE REGION.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL
AREAS, THOUGH THE LACKLUSTER SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT
STRENGTH OF THESE DEVELOPING BREEZES.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ENERGY IN THE WESTERN GULF ATTEMPTS TO
ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE RIDGE BACKING DOWN SO EASILY, WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY WOULD
BE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AS IT WILL BE ON THE BACKEND OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BY THAT TIME.
AVIATION
THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS
MOVING EAST. AS IT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE, IT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST, THAT MAY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW PASSES TONIGHT, IT WILL WEAKEN, BUT STILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE AREA. FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN YAKUTAT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IMPROVE FOR
THE PANHANDLE. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
OCCURRING, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND IS ENTERING OUR
MARINE WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA,
AND WINDS LOOK FAIRLY WEAK IN THE GULF WATERS. BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD-IN, AND LEAD
TO GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEYOND THURSDAY. BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND HAIDA GWAII,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15-25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 6-9
FEET, SO THIS IS AN AREA TO MONITOR.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG
NEAR KETCHIKAN AND IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FROM NEAR ELDRED ROCK TO
TAIYA INLET. WINDS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN BEFORE FRIDAY BRINGS ELEVATED WINDS BACK TO LYNN CANAL,
CLARENCE STRAIT, CROSS SOUND, AND ICY STRAIT. SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN IN LYNN CANAL, AND ONSHORE WINDS IN THE GULF
WILL CHANNEL STRONGER WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT, ICY STRAIT, AND
CROSS SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
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