554
FXAK67 PAJK 181351
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKDT THU JUN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES, AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 70S.
- A REGION OF GOOD HEATING FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO STRONGER CONVECTION
ALONG THE CHILKAT RANGE AND NORTH TO BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER.
AND THE REMAINS OF AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ON SATURDAY CLOUD
DEVELOP THE STRONGER CONVECTION FOR THE MISTY FJORDS NORTH TO
ABOUT ERNEST SOUND.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE PANHANDLE AND TRACK ACROSS IT
FRIDAY BEFORE TAKING THE REMAINS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. SHOWERS
NEARLY OVER THE FOR SEAK, HOWEVER, SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE WIT AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING FOR THE
MOST PART WARMING FORM THE 50S T UPWARDS OF THE 70S, WITH WARMEST
SECTIONS ALONG THE MAINLAND AND INNER CHANNELS. A MARINE LAYER
STILL EVIDENT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE GULF AND NEAR THE
COAST. PATCHY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BE GOING AWAY BY MID
MORNING AND ANTICIPATE THAT IT COULD REFORM OVERNIGHT AGAIN.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
(WRITTEN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON) WITH THE RIDGE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA STRENGTHENING
SATURDAY, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THIS
PATTERN, A MARINE LAYER IS ALSO LIKELY OVER THE GULF, THOUGH AS OF
THIS FORECAST IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE INNER CHANNELS
DUE TO FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE OUTER COAST. WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS, DESCENDING DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WARM, THEREFORE AS OF THIS
FORECAST, DAYTIME HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OR EXCEED ANY
RECORDS.
WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
GENERALLY DROP OFF AS THE RIDGE AXIS ROTATES OVER THE REGION.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL
AREAS, THOUGH THE LACKLUSTER SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD LIMIT
STRENGTH OF THESE DEVELOPING BREEZES.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ENERGY IN THE WESTERN GULF ATTEMPTS TO
ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE RIDGE BACKING DOWN SO EASILY, WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY WOULD
BE THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AS IT WILL BE ON THE BACK END OF THE
RIDGE AXIS BY THAT TIME.
AVIATION
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AS LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
BOARDER ON 3,000FT, EXCEPT FOR PAGS SITTING AROUND 1,500FT, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE
MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESEMBLE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DIRECTIONS AS THE
DAY GOES ON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT,
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS BACK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS YAKUTAT, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND ANTICIPATED LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG. HOWEVER,
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS DIRECTING DRIER AIR TOWARDS
YAKUTAT, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAK LOW MAKES IT'S WAY ONTO
LAND THIS EARLY MORNING, CAUSING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO THE GULF. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA LOOKS TO BRING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ONCE THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATED BY THE COASTAL TERRAIN,
SPECIFICALLY AROUND PROMINENT CAPES, CAUSING WINDS TO REACH UP TO
20-25KTS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, 15-20KTS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE EXPECTED AROUND CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND CAPE
SPENCER, WHILE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE MORE
TIME TO ACCELERATE UP TO 20-25KTS. THIS PHENOMENA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THROUGH THE PERIOD , WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SIT AROUND
4-5FT AND BUILD UP TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH THE
ACCELERATION OF WIND ALONG THE COAST.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THURSDAY BRINGS GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS
TO THE INNER CHANNELS, REACHING 10KTS WITH TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS. LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT LOOK TO BE THE OUTLIERS
FOR THIS TREND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 15-20KTS (SE IN LYNN
AND NW IN CLARENCE). WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN CROSS
SOUND AND ICY STRAIT AS TERRAIN FORCED CHANNELING AROUND
PROMINENT CAPES CAUSES SURFACE WINDS TO ACCELERATE, UP TO 10-15KTS
WITH A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME
CALM AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP
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