713
FXAK67 PAJK 260622
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2026
UPDATE...TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUT BY 18Z
TOMORROW, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS SLIGHTLY TOO MUCH INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST FOR WIDESPREAD
MARINE LAYER ISSUES OVERNIGHT, LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, PRIMARILY AFFECTING PAJN AND
PAGS DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AS WELL AS LINGERING MOISTURE FOLLOWING
TODAY’S RAIN SHOWERS. THEREFORE, THESE SITES HAVE BEEN TEMPO’D
DOWN IN THE EARLY MORNING FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT
OR ABOVE 1000FT. ANY FOG FORMATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TOMORROW, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES AS BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
303 PM AKDT THU JUN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR CAPE
ST ELIAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS MAJORITY OF PANHANDLE FROM WEAKENING LOW IN EASTERN GULF
- SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII. THE BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE AND NE GULF COAST. THE PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO EXIT
OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NE GULF COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING FROM SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT EXITING
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND PLENTY OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPARK MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO BE LARGELY OVER
THE COAST MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST OF ICY BAY.
FOR TONIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET SOME CLEARING FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY
LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO, AS EXISTING VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY HELP LIFT
CLOUDS OR MIX THEM OUT ENTIRELY. KEPT THE INHERITED FORECAST, AS
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GOA IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN, PROMOTING NWERLY WINDS, SOME CLEARING, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, EVEN WITH PLENTY
OF SOLAR HEATING. THIS INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO
BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL, NOR ARE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 80 DEGREES. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE WITHIN AROUND 10 MILES
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. JUST
GIVEN THE LOW 850S; HOWEVER, DID NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT ADVISORIES THIS
TIME AROUND. ADDITIONALLY FOR FRIDAY, EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN BRITISH COLUMBIA LIKELY TO SPARK
UP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING DIVERGENT
OVER MISTY FJORDS WITH PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
CHANCES AT THIS POINT ARE AROUND 20%, OR ISOLATED.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING GULF WINDS TO A NORTHWESTERLY FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND TAPERING OFF THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PANHANDLE LOOKS TO STAY
DRY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
INCREASED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES
THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND ONSHORE, BUT SATURDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER AS IT GETS CLOSER. WITH THESE
CLEARING SKIES THIS WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE HIGH 60S AND EVEN THE LOW 70S. 10 TO 15 KT
SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY FOR AREAS SEEING
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL LOOKS TO INCREASE WINDS THROUGH TAIYA INLET AND INTO SKAGWAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF BOTH WEEKEND DAYS, WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH ANY SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA STANDARDS, BUT SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK DUE TO MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IN TERMS OF A
SURFACE INFLECTION, BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE WITH INCREASED
VORTICITY PUSHES OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE OUTER
COAST SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY BE WEAK AND MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE. FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, THIS
MAY JUST MANIFEST AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER OR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
DEPENDING UPON THE FORMATION OF A MARINE LAYER. EVEN SO, THIS WILL
STILL DECREASE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
AVIATION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER 09Z TONIGHT,
LIGHT WINDS AND BREAKS IN SKY COVER MAY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR PAHN, PAJN, AND PAGS. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF BY 15Z FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MIST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH A GENERAL
IMPROVING TREND AND PREVAILING VFR CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, WINDS UP TO 10 KTS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. FRIDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND A RIDGE
WILL BUILD-IN BEHIND IT. FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THIS WILL LEAD
TO WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KTS IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA AND
WAVES 5- 10 FEET.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY IN THE
INNER CHANNELS. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY, THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KTS IN CLARENCE STRAIT, AND WAVES UP TO 4
FEET. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO WESTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS
IN CROSS SOUND. OVERALL, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE OUTER WATERS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>664.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...BAS/MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
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