323
FXAK67 PAJK 261757
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
957 AM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT RESULTED IN
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS EARLIER TODAY HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL ALSO
BE SEEN TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KETCHIKAN AND SKAGWAY. LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVANCE
INLAND AND LOWER CEILINGS, LIKELY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE INLAND ADVANCEMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 414AM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM...SOME AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES
THIS MORNING FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WE HAVE SEEN SOME AREAS OF
FOG START TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO LESS THAN
ONE MILE AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, A LOW STRATUS DECK IS SETTING UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND 200-1,000FT. HEADED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
BUT THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT GOING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
POINTING TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAINS TOWARDS LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOWER THAN ONE WOULD LIKE SO WILL DEFER TO THE
DAY SHIFT TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES BUILDING BACK IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. RIDGING OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BUILD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING GULF WINDS TO A NORTHWESTERLY FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZE DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND TAPERING OFF THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PANHANDLE LOOKS TO STAY
DRY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
INCREASED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES
THROUGH MIDDAY. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND ONSHORE, BUT SATURDAY
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER AND DRIER AS IT GETS CLOSER. WITH THESE
CLEARING SKIES THIS WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE HIGH 60S AND EVEN THE LOW 70S. 10 TO 15 KT
SEA BREEZES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY FOR AREAS SEEING
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENTLY WARM DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL LOOKS TO INCREASE WINDS THROUGH TAIYA INLET AND INTO SKAGWAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OF BOTH WEEKEND DAYS, WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS WITH ANY SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD IS STILL RELATIVELY QUIET FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA STANDARDS, BUT SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK DUE TO MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IN TERMS OF A
SURFACE INFLECTION, BUT AS THE DISTURBANCE WITH INCREASED
VORTICITY PUSHES OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE OUTER
COAST SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY BE WEAK AND MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL
THE WAY INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE. FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE, THIS
MAY JUST MANIFEST AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER OR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
DEPENDING UPON THE FORMATION OF A MARINE LAYER. EVEN SO, THIS WILL
STILL DECREASE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF AK
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF, STRENGTHENING NE FLOW WILL SEE WINDS IN THE SE GULF
STRENGTHEN TO 20-30 KT OUT OF THE NW, WITH ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE VICINITY OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND OUTSIDE
OF CROSS SOUND. WAVEHEIGHTS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SE
GULF WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AS ONE HEADS NORTH, BECOMING 4-6 FT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE WEEKEND. SW SWELL OF 1- 3 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS BECOMING 3-4 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN GULF ON
SATURDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MARINE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON FRIDAY FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN CHATHAM AREA
DISSIPATES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A DECAYING
LOW OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AND THE SUBSEQUENT
BUILDING OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE, A MARINE LAYER
WILL LIKELY BEGIN BUILDING FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER COAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SEA- BREEZE FOCUSED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE USUAL SEA- BREEZE HOT SPOT AREAS OF NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL/TAIYA INLET, THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND CLARENCE
STRAIT WILL SEE 15-20 KT WINDS AT TIMES (WITH 25 KT WINDS
OCCASIONALLY POSSIBLE FOR TAIYA INLET), WHILE OTHER INNER CHANNELS
WILL SEE WINDS OF 5-15 KT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...GFS
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