036
FXAK67 PAJK 270616 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1016 PM AKDT FRI JUN 26 2026
UPDATE
THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ACROSS THE COAST MOUNTAIN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE OVER NIGHT STARTING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM, IS
LOOKING FAIRLY MOIST AND THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS WERE INDICATING A SHIFT TO WETTER PATTERN. SO THE DRY
WEATHER THAT WAS IN THE FORECAST GOT A REFRESH. EXPECT POPS OF 30
TO 60 SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE PRIMARY CHANGE IN FORECAST THAT
COULD IMPACT AVIATION IS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OVER FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACT FROM THESE WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS TO 5SM OR
LESS. OTHERWISE PRIMARY IMPACTS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
REMAIN A RESURGENT MARINE LAYER THAT WILL LIKELY BRING LOWERED
CIGS AOB 1500 FT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE BY MID MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 335 PM FRIDAY JUN 26
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FOG CHANCES FOR THE OUTER COAST AND ICY STRAIT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASED TO AROUND 20% FOR THE FAR INNER CHANNELS,
INCLUDING JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL, DUE TO AN EASTERLY
WAVE FROM CANADA. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING TIMEFRAME.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES, MORE CLOUD COVER, AND DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND AND GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...TONIGHT THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL AND A MARINE LAYER SETTING UP OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTLINE NEAR YAKUTAT DOWN ALONG BARANOF ISLAND.
CURRENTLY IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE IT WILL ADVANCE VERY FAR INLAND,
MOVING INTO CROSS SOUND UP TO AROUND GUSTAVUS, AND OVER SOME OF
THE TOWNS ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE, EVEN POTENTIALLY SETTING UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF POW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON IT PUSHING IN FURTHER TO AROUND THE JUNEAU AREA, OR
CURVING UP INTO CLARENCE STRAIT TO NEAR KETCHIKAN IF THE WINDS
SHIFT SW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE OUTER
COASTLINE MAY LINGER LONGER INTO THE MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COASTLINE AS A SYSTEM IN CANADA PUSHES
SOME WAVES INTO THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WILL
LARGELY CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (15-25%) OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE
PANHANDLE WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN AN EASTERLY
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM AROUND PETERSBURG/WRANGELL NORTHWARD TO
JUNEAU. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME CLEARER SKIES ON SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER EITHER
BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
EASTERLY WAVE, OR ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE FROM THE RIDGE SITING
OFFSHORE. THESE CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVEN AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS ANY SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL
LARGELY STAY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MORE MODERATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS CLOUD
COVER LINGERS.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONDITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS TO START OFF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, COMBINED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN THE GULF AND BRING
DAMPER, OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 40% WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SOME TIME DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN OFFSHORE SHIFT IN FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS IN
THE GULF ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A STRONG NW COMPONENT WITH SEA
BREEZES DRIVING WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH A MARINE LAYER WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND
BRING THE RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS. MINOR SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
CONTINUE AT SKAGWAY AND KETCHIKAN THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS.
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RISE AFTER ABOUT 14Z SATURDAY, BUT AN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT PAPG
AND PAWG.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA LEVEL FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUING, COMBINED SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS, WITH
HIGHER WAVES (8-11FT) FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ALEXANDER. THE
OTHER THING OF NOTE FOR THE OUTER WATERS WOULD BE THE SET UP OF A
MORE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND FOG SET UP FOR ALONG THE COAST.
INSIDE: THE DIURNAL WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE INNER WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, HOWEVER FOR CHANNELS THAT ARE E-W
ORIENTED AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL SEE WINDIER CONDITIONS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS. SIMILAR TO THE OUTER WATERS, THE MARINE
LAYER WILL MOVE IN DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, THIS WILL
BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK WITH ONLY TRULY ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...BUTWIN
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