320
FXAK67 PAJK 271817
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1017 AM AKDT SAT JUN 27 2026
UPDATE
MAKE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL MESSAGE FOR
TODAY (SATURDAY) SPECIFICALLY FOR THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM CANADA
OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS ARE OVERTAKING ANY DRYING EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BETWEEN 700-500
MB IS ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. EXPECTING TO
SEE PORTIONS OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, PARTICUARLY IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, RECEIVE PORTIONS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AS
THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES FALL PAST
AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING, DROPPING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
A MARINE LAYER ALONG THE OUTER COAST IS
CONTINUING TO BRINGS IFR TO LOW TIER MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21-00Z, BEFORE CONDITIONS AGAIN
DETERIORATE AS THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS AND ADVANCES INLAND.
ADDITIONALLY, A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE EAST IS BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN, IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL ONLY GRADULLAY IMPROVE AFTER
ABOUT 00-03Z.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 438 AM AKDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRENGTHENING MARINE LAYER WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AND FOG CHANCES FOR THE OUTER COAST AND ICY STRAIT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASED FOR THE FAR INNER CHANNELS, INCLUDING
JUNEAU, PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL, DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM
CANADA. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES, MORE CLOUD COVER, AND DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND AND GOING INTO THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/
MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, NAMELY INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF ADMIRALTY ISLAND. INCLUDING
JUNEAU, THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A MORE ROBUST EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE. NOT ANTICIPATING A WASHOUT BY SEAK
STANDARDS, AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR LESS AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO
AROUND 60-80% THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. OVERLAND WINDS REMAIN LARGELY 10 MPH OR LESS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARER
SKIES ON SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER EITHER BEING
PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE
EASTERLY WAVE, OR ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE FROM THE RIDGE SITING
OFFSHORE. THESE CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVEN AS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO SEE SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS ANY SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL
LARGELY STAY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OVERALL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MORE MODERATED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
CLOUD COVER LINGERS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE S PANHANDLE AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE N
PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO START OFF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, COMBINED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN
THE GULF AND BRING DAMPER, OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 40% WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SOME TIME DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OR WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY TITLED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN OFFSHORE SHIFT IN FLOW. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
TUESDAY WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS IN THE GULF ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A STRONG NW COMPONENT
WITH SEA BREEZES DRIVING WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
A MARINE LAYER ALONG THE OUTER COAST BRINGS IFR TO LOW TIER MVFR
CIGS (500 FT TO 1500 FT) THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
MARINE LAYER MOVES BACK OFFSHORE, ONLY TO RETURN AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE E WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR CIGS, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPART BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE/COASTAL WATER: A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REACHING SCA
LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUING,
COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OUTSIDE
WATERS, WITH HIGHER WAVES (8-11FT) FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT
ALEXANDER. THE OTHER THING OF NOTE FOR THE OUTER WATERS WOULD BE
THE SET UP OF A MORE PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER AND FOG SET UP FOR
ALONG THE COAST.
INNER CHANNELS: THE DIURNAL WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF
INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE INNER WATERS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, HOWEVER FOR
CHANNELS THAT ARE E-W ORIENTED AND NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL SEE
WINDIER CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS. SIMILAR TO THE
OUTER WATERS, THE MARINE LAYER WILL MOVE IN DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK WITH ONLY
TRULY ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUST WIND CONDITIONS IN FRIDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661>664.
UPDATE...COMPTON
SHORT TERM...CONTINO/NM
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...GFS
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