622
FXAK67 PAJK 281303
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SHORT TERM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH DEPARTED OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT
IN ITS WAKE A WIDE SWATH OF LOW CEILINGS AND STRATUS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN AUGMENTED BY
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF, WHICH HAS HELPED REBUILD THE MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE OUTER COAST. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HELPED. THE
MARINE LAYER WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, AM LESS CONFIDENT IN AN SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING HAPPENING ACROSS THE NORTH. INSTEAD, THINK THAT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP THE STRATUS DECK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE LARGELY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY,
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR SOME
EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL LARGELY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, ALTHOUGH STILL
ANTICIPATE BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR USUAL HOT SPOT AREAS LIKE
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MODERATE, WITH THE CLOUD DECK PREVENTING MOST AREAS FROM
SEEING SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.
LONG TERM... /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TO START OFF THE WEEK. ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, COMBINED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER IN
THE GULF AND BRING DAMPER, OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLE.
CHANCES FOR THE ONSHORE SHOWERS LOOK TO LAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ON IF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO SIT OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY, IT
WILL MAKE THE FLOW MORE OFFSHORE, AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AMPLITUDE OFFSHORE INCREASING AND MAKING THE W-LY ONSHORE FLOW
BECOME MORE NW-LY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND GIVE A BREAK FOR THE AREA. A LOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF THURSDAY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BACK TO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY.
AVIATION
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A
MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY BRINGING CEILINGS AS LOW AS 400 FEET TO
YAKUTAT, SITKA, AND FOG TO PETERSBURG. SKAGWAY IS CURRENTLY VFR, AND
MOST TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZES. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
YAKUTAT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CEILINGS BELOW 2500 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT WEAK WINDS AND MOISTURE.
WITH ON SHORE FLOW, SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN 2500 FOOT
CEILINGS FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW, BUT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY IS
LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH SEAS UP
TO 9 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCURING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, SO THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
WELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THIS MORNING, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OCCURING IN LYNN CANAL WITH ELDRED ROCK SEEING 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND CLARENCE STRAIT SEEING 10-15 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REPORTED
IN KETCHIKAN. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA,
WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR CROSS SOUND, THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND NEAR CAPE DECISION. MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVERALL WEAKER WINDS BY
OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661>663.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
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