482
FXAK67 PAJK 290549 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
949 PM AKDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATE
AFTER 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MARGINAL VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS OF 1000 TO 2500 FEET. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. NOT MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 421 AKDT SUN JUN 28
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT DRIER YET CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COMMUNITIES LOCATED BETWEEN ICY STRAIT AND
FREDRICK SOUND, AND ALONG THE COAST FROM YAKUTAT TO SITKA. THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DAMP WHILE
THE MID LEVELS ARE INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS HAS LED TO
THE INCLUSION OF A RAIN MENTION FOR THE PREVIOUSLY STATED AREAS,
RANGING FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (MAINLY BELOW 45%). THE
THINKING IS THAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND A
MARINE LAYER THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE AREA
BETWEEN ICY STRAIT AND FREDRICK SOUND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY AND STAY
RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CLOUDIER SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PANHANDLE IS THEN CAUGHT ON THE TROUGHING SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
INDICATES ANOTHER DAY OF WIDER SPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS COASTAL
COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AGAIN, THIS RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE INTERMITTENT AND DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWER CLOUD DECKS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS DUE TO
COOLER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE
DESPITE THE POSSIBILITY FOR POCKETS OF SUN IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. FOR MORE ON THE UPCOMING WEATHER, REFER TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST BELOW.
LONG TERM...
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK, AS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP COOLER,
MARITIME AIR OVERHEAD FOR LONGER. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE,
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. COULD SEE
A FEATURE WITH SOME SUBSTANCE BY THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME THAT MAY
BRING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, BUT NOTHING THAT IS NOT TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SIMILAR ON THE SIDE OF WINDS, WITH NO WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LAND
AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LOOKING TO EXCEED 30 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SKAGWAY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY/...THE MARINE LAYER CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST WITH LOWERED CLOUD CEILINGS TO
AROUND MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS TO ALSO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN OUTER COAST & THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
BACK IN. MONDAY MORNING, THE MARINE LAYER WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
RETREAT FROM THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN OUTER COAST & THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR, IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. THE REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE PAPG AREA, WHICH MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME AREAS OF FG, LOWERING CONDITIONS, OVERNIGHT. AS
FAR AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN LYNN
CANAL & CLARENCE STRAIT REGIONS, INCLUDING PAGY & PAKT, WHICH WILL
KEEP GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING & ALSO MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM A COMBINATION OF A SEA BREEZE & A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR PAGY & JUST A SEA BREEZE FOR PAKT. LLWS VALUES REMAIN BENIGN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA IS LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT.
THROUGH MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS UP
TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM PORT ALEXANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD
DIXON ENTRANCE. INTO TUESDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
LOWERING WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST WITH THE STRONGEST UP TO 15
KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO 6FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
WINDS TRENDING WEAKER TO AROUND 10KTS THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING DECREASES. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN UP TO 25 KTS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND THERMAL
TROUGHING IN CANADA INCREASES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
CROSS SOUND AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NEAR CAPE DECISION.
TUESDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVERALL
WEAKER WINDS BY OCEAN ENTRANCES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641-644-661.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
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