332
FXAK67 PAJK 291813
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1013 AM AKDT MON JUN 29 2026
UPDATE...TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
THE RIDGE IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO DRIVE ONSHORE FLOW,
RESULTING IN LOWERED (MVFR) CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING. PAYA IS CURRENTLY SEEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS,
WITH IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AOB 1000FT, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CURRENT LOWER
CLOUD DECK PASSES THROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PAGY AND PAKT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z AS DAYTIME HEATING STRENGTHENS.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE REMAINING DRIER TODAY AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TOMORROW, THE MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS IMPACTFUL TO COASTAL SITES OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
431 AM AKDT MON JUN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE LOOK TO CONTINUE .
- GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH
CLOUD COVER RECEDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CLOUD DECK HAS REMAINED
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT,
EVEN AS A MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED BACK INTO THE OUTER COAST AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY, THE WEATHER LOOKS SET TO
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LESS THAN IDEA FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
A LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTRIBUTES TO ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO SE AK. THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY, DO EXPECT THAT THE CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MIGHT OCCUR. PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
FOR AREAS BETWEEN SITKA AND BERNERS BAY, AND ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE MARINE LAYER
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK INLAND, WITH THE STRATUS DECK ONCE MORE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEFORE PULLING BACK OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MODERATE SIDE, WITH LOW TO MID 60S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S AS CLOUD COVER PREVENTS
SIGNIFICANT NIGHT TIME COOLING. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
AND LARGELY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN. THOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL BE LIMITED
IN STRENGTH GIVEN THE CLOUDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR ICY STRAIT,
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL, AND CLARENCE STRAIT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ALONG WITH THE SE GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION,
SEE THE MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.
LONG TERM...NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, AS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
KEEP COOLER, MARITIME AIR OVERHEAD FOR LONGER. WITH ONSHORE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, AND WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL. COULD SEE A FEATURE WITH SOME SUBSTANCE BY THE
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME THAT MAY BRING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS,
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT NOTHING THAT IS NOT
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SIMILAR ON THE SIDE OF WINDS, WITH
NO WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LAND AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LOOKING TO
EXCEED 30 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY.
AVIATION... WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A
MARINE LAYER IS BRINGING CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET ACROSS THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z MONDAY, BUT SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND NEAR YAKUTAT AS WELL. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER CEILINGS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MARINE LAYER
BUILDING IN. AS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN THIS
LAYER IMPACTING PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, SO WINDS AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): THIS MONDAY MORNING, THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE INNER CHANNELS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN LYNN CANAL,
WHERE ELDRED ROCK IS SEEING 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE, 10-15 KT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN
CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, EXPECT THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE GULF TO BRING STRONGER WINDS INTO CROSS
SOUND, AND NEAR PORT ALEXANDER AND CAPE DECISION. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, AND SHOULD LEAD TO
CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641-644-661.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...BAS/NC
MARINE...MUSALL
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