129
FXAK67 PAJK 300605
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 PM AKDT MON JUN 29 2026
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN BOTH
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND
THAT MAY REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF THE MARINE LAYER, BUT WE STILL
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER BY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 326 PM AKDT MON JUN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THE OUTER
COAST AND ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU.
- DIURNAL INCREASES IN WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNEL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES.
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN RATES.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
LEADING TO SOMEWHAT MORE UNCERTAIN YET LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER. THE
HIGHEST MAGNITUDE OF FLOW LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE,
DIGGING A TAD FURTHER SOUTH FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JET. AS A RESULT, CONSISTENT TROUGHING AND
DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS EXPOSED
TO A WEST WIND. FURTHERMORE, LOOKING NEAR THE 850-700 MB LAYER,
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE
IN THE OUTER GULF THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, ENHANCED
WESTERLIES, PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF, SUMNER STRAIT, PERIL STRAIT,
AND ICY STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS LOOKS TO IMPACT
PARTICULARLY THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG WITH COMMUNITIES IN ICY
STRAIT ALL THE WAY TO JUNEAU. WITH ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS,
KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT
72 HOURS, WITH LITTLE CHANCE THAT CLOUDS CAN WIDELY BE WIPED AWAY.
THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
CLEARING, DUE TO LITTLE MOISTURE ALOFT AND WESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
FLOW WRINGING OUT MOISTURE ON THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND CHILKAT
RANGE. THE INNER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION, BUT MAY SEE SOME MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY RETREAT ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WE START THE PERIOD OUT
WITH CONTINUED GENERAL RIDGING & ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
MOVING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, OVER HAIDA GWAII, ON THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEATHER. NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL WILL HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT THURSDAY &
FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENED SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF &
PANHANDLE & LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA & SOUTHERN
CANADIAN YUKON REGION. FOR FRIDAY, A WEAKENING LOW WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE DIXON ENTRANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH
IT INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL &
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT FOR THE EASTERN GULF WATERS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, & INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KT AROUND THE DIXON ENTRANCE & THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION...IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO IFR VSBYS/CIGS AS
RAIN SHOWERS PASS OVER THE COASTAL REGION. EXPECTING CURRENT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGINS TO WEAKEN TOMORROW, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE IN INFLUENCE FROM THE MARINE LAYER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
ALONG THE OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SITES PASI NORTHWARD, AND
INCLUDING PAKW, THROUGH 15Z TO 17Z. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, LEAVING LOW SCUD CLOUDS IN THEIR
WAKE, AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO DRIVE ONSHORE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY TODAY. INTO TUESDAY, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, LOWERING WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST
WITH THE STRONGEST UP TO 15 KTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BETWEEN CAPE DECISION AND DIXON ENTRANCE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
PATTERNS SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE FLOW TO RELATIVELY WEAK NW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO OCEAN ENTRANCES. SEAS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 3-4FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE, THOUGH WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY EACH DAY AS BOTH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH IN CANADA WEAKEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR FROM THE SW AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL FROM THE
S, AT AROUND 15KTS, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL BE PRIMARILY
ISOLATED NEAR TAIYA INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-644-661.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...BAS
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