667
FXAK67 PAJK 301214
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 AM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE THE NEXT TODAY FOR THE OUTER COAST AND ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU.
- WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND BRING AN
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MIDWEEK.
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN RATES.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT SHIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY, GENERALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER OVER YAKUTAT TODAY
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF DURING THE DAYTIME. WEAK TROUGHING WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH AND RAIN RATES SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER PERSISTING, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWERS 60S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WE START THE PERIOD OUT
WITH CONTINUED GENERAL RIDGING & ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD,
MOVING SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, OVER HAIDA GWAII, ON THURSDAY. THIS
LOW WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEATHER. NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL WILL HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT THURSDAY &
FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENED SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE BETWEEN THE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE EASTERN GULF &
PANHANDLE & LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA & SOUTHERN
CANADIAN YUKON REGION. FOR FRIDAY, A WEAKENING LOW WILL BEGIN ITS
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA, EVENTUALLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE DIXON ENTRANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WITH
IT INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL & SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KT FOR THE EASTERN GULF WATERS, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, & INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND
20 KT AROUND THE DIXON ENTRANCE & THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CLARENCE
STRAIT.
AVIATION
A WEAKENED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA HAS BROUGHT A MARINE LAYER TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE MARINE
LAYER IS WEAKER THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. STILL, THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BROUGHT CEILINGS AS LOW AS 800 FEET AT TIMES AND
IFR VISIBILITIES TO YAKUTAT. WITH ON SHORE FLOW, SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE (E.G. GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU)
COULD BRING SOME CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FEET. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SHOWERS DROPPING CONDITIONS IS LOW, BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY
AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, THE MARINE
LAYER AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER. WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 12Z TAFS.
FOG FORMATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING CAN OCCUR THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, SO WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING TUESDAY. WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. 15-20 KT WINDS
AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE GULF TUESDAY, BUT
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN, EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS IN LYNN CANAL, CROSS SOUND,
AND NEAR CAPE DECISION TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH HAIDA GWAII. THIS MAY BRING SOME 10-15 KT
EASTERLY WINDS TO DIXON ENTRANCE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, IT MAY IMPACT OUR INNER CHANNELS, BUT EVEN
IF IT DOES WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS AREA WIDE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page