099
FXAK67 PAJK 302357
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
357 PM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
- BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF PANHANDLE SUNDAY, BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE OUTER COAST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF CLEARING PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY LASTING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SOMEWHAT A RINSE AND
REPEAT PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLE. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT
DYNAMICS, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREEPS FURTHER INTO OUR AOR,
OVERALL, THE IMPACTS ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM SITKA NORTHWARD
AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. ONE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, HOWEVER,
IS THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LYNN CANAL AREA, WHICH
DEFINITELY INCREASES THE RAIN CHANCES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY. NOT
EXPECTING THESE PROBABILITIES TO BE OVERLY HIGH, AROUND 40%
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEES A LOW
PRESSURE BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE; BUT THERE IS
INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THIS COULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED, PUTTING AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA IN THE
DRY PORTION OF THE LOW, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH 850 TEMPERATURES BARELY ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. THEREFORE,
EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR A HIGH IN MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SERIES OF LOWS APPROACH &
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD PAST SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA & ENHANCED WINDS LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
VALUES(23 KT OR GREATER) TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & INNER
CHANNELS. SEAS FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS LOOK TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(8 FT OR MORE) AS THE LOWS APPROACH & PASS
BY THE REGION.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DIPPING PRIMARILY
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
LOWEST FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ASHORE. FOR THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN OUTER COAST, CONDITIONS
WILL DIP INTO HIGH MVFR FROM REMNANT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM A
COLLAPSING FLATTENED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FOR THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS FAR AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, PAGY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM A COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE & THE SEA BREEZE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS VALUES SHOULD REMAIN A
NON-ISSUE THROUGH TH PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WATERS IS SLOWLY BEING BROKEN DOWN, SHIFTING WINDS WESTWARD AND
WEAKENING THEM DOWN TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SIMILARLY, SEAS ARE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF. COULD SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE
OUTER GULF, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL, WINDS ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OF LESS, WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION TO THESE LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS CROSS SOUND
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF ICY STRAIT, AND LYNN CANAL, WHERE
THERMALLY DRIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO INCREASE WINDS TO
MOSTLY 15 KNOTS BUT OCCASIONALLY SOME POCKETS OF 20 KNOTS
DEPENDING ON GAP WINDS IN THE TERRAIN.
HYDROLOGY
LAKE NO LAKE HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE RELEASING, AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED FROM SPOTTERS ALONG TAKU RIVER. WHILE NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, ELEVATED FLOW UP TO AROUND 80 KCFS
MAXIMIZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. WHILE
FLOOD IS NOT EXPECTED, COULD SEE SOME DEBRIS IN THE WATER.
FURTHERMORE, AS WATER TEMPERATURES OF GLACIAL WATERS ARE MUCH
COLDER THAN INNER CHANNEL WATERS, MUCH COLDER WATER TEMPERATURES
IN TAKU INLET ARE POSSIBLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...STJ
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