764
FXAK67 PAJK 010645 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2026
EVENING AVIATION AND LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MAINLY LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER ADVANCEMENT. FARTHER SOUTH, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO PAKT
AND PAKW AROUND 12Z.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS APPROACH & SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD PAST SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA & ENHANCED WINDS LESS
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(23 KT OR GREATER) TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & INNER CHANNELS. SEAS FOR THE OUTSIDE
WATERS LOOK TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(8 FT
OR MORE) AS THE LOWS APPROACH & PASS BY THE REGION.
THE SERIES OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD POSITIONED JET STREAM, WILL
ASSIST THE FORMATION OF SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. SEASONABLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WARMING. A WEAK LOW
ENTERING THE GULF ON FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BRING ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF
ANOTHER WEAK LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SEQUENCE OF GULF
LOWS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HIGHEST INTENSITY EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MID TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. A SUBSEQUENT WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE CONTINUOUS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, A POTENTIAL BREAK IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
INTERMITTENT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES, WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING AFTER
MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
357 PM AKDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
- BRIEF BREAK EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF PANHANDLE SUNDAY, BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO THE OUTER COAST AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF CLEARING PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY LASTING INTO THE START OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN FOR THE PANHANDLE. WHILE
THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENT DYNAMICS, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREEPS
FURTHER INTO OUR AOR, OVERALL, THE IMPACTS ARE MOSTLY THE SAME.
STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTLINE
FROM SITKA NORTHWARD AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. ONE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, IS THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LYNN
CANAL AREA, WHICH DEFINITELY INCREASES THE RAIN CHANCES FOR HAINES
AND SKAGWAY. NOT EXPECTING THESE PROBABILITIES TO BE OVERLY HIGH,
AROUND 40% FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SEES A LOW PRESSURE BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD HAIDA GWAII.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE;
BUT THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THIS COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED, PUTTING AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN AND
METLAKATLA IN THE DRY PORTION OF THE LOW, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH 850 TEMPERATURES
BARELY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR A
HIGH IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE CURRENT RIDGE OVER THE GULF
WATERS IS SLOWLY BEING BROKEN DOWN, SHIFTING WINDS WESTWARD AND
WEAKENING THEM DOWN TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SIMILARLY, SEAS ARE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF. COULD SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS IN THE
OUTER GULF, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL, WINDS ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS OF LESS, WITH
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT. THE EXCEPTION TO THESE LOWER WIND SPEEDS IS CROSS SOUND
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF ICY STRAIT, AND LYNN CANAL, WHERE
THERMALLY DRIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO INCREASE WINDS TO
MOSTLY 15 KNOTS BUT OCCASIONALLY SOME POCKETS OF 20 KNOTS
DEPENDING ON GAP WINDS IN THE TERRAIN. LOCALIZED TO STEPHENS
PASSAGE, A GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST EVENT IS ONGOING ON THE TAKU
RIVER WITH POTENTIAL DEBRIS IN THE WATER ON THE TAKU RIVER, TAKU
INLET AND EXTENDING INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE WATER TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TAKU INLET MAY BE
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL BY POTENTIALLY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES.
HYDROLOGY...
RIVER GAUGE OBSERVATIONS AS OF TUESDAY EVENING INDICATE A RELEASE
FROM LAKE NO LAKE IS ONGOING. BASED UPON BASIN ESTIMATES AND
CURRENT RIVER LEVELS, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST TO REACH BANKFULL CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
ELEVATED FLOW UP TO AROUND 80 KCFS. AS A RESULT OF THE RELEASE,
DEBRIS IN THE WATER IS POSSIBLE ON THE TAKU RIVER, EXTENDING DOWN
TAKU INLET, & INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY FOR WEDNESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, THE WATER TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TAKU RIVER MAY BE MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL, POSSIBLY BY MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. TYPICALLY A
RELEASE OF THIS TYPE ALONG THE TAKU RIVER LASTS FROM 1 TO 3 DAYS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ALASKA RIVER FORECAST CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS GOING FORWARD AND UPDATE THIS
STATEMENT AS NECESSARY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC/BAS
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NM
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