917
FXAK67 PAJK 011243
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
443 AM AKDT WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN RATES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- THE TAKU RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO ONGOING GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST. WHILE FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED, DEBRIS IN THE WATER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH
AN AREA OF TROUGHING SLIDING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER MARINE AIR, FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT
SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GULF ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH SE AK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE APPROACHING
LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS ALOFT, SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE REDUCTION
IN CLOUDS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SERIES OF LOWS APPROACH & SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD PAST SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA & ENHANCED WINDS LESS
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(23 KT OR GREATER) TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & INNER CHANNELS. SEAS FOR THE OUTSIDE
WATERS LOOK TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(8 FT
OR MORE) AS THE LOWS APPROACH & PASS BY THE REGION.
THE SERIES OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD POSITIONED JET STREAM, WILL
ASSIST THE FORMATION OF SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. SEASONABLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WARMING. A WEAK LOW
ENTERING THE GULF ON FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BRING ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF
ANOTHER WEAK LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SEQUENCE OF GULF
LOWS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HIGHEST INTENSITY EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MID TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. A SUBSEQUENT WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE CONTINUOUS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, A POTENTIAL BREAK IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
INTERMITTENT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES, WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING AFTER
MONDAY.
AVIATION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED
MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500 FEET TO YAKUTAT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEST OF CAPE SPENCER HAS HELPED MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER
FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. THE LOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES LOOK GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE. AFTER 06Z, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR.
WITH WEAK WINDS, FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE IN PETERSBURG TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, IT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF CAPE SPENCER, WINDS AND WAVES ARE FAIRLY
BENIGN THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER
THE AREA, THE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL PERSIST BEFORE A FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE FRONT,
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAIDA
GWAII BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE FAIRLY CALM IN THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT. THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE,
SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND TURN SOUTHERLY
IN CLARENCE STRAIT. FRIDAY MORNING, A FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE INNER CHANNELS LOOKS TO BE
COVERAGE OF RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER GAUGE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INDICATE A
RELEASE FROM LAKE NO LAKE IS ONGOING. BASED UPON BASIN ESTIMATES
AND CURRENT RIVER LEVELS, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE RIVER
FORECAST TO REACH BANKFULL CONDITIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ELEVATED FLOW UP TO AROUND 80 KCFS. AS A RESULT OF THE
RELEASE, DEBRIS IN THE WATER IS POSSIBLE ON THE TAKU RIVER,
EXTENDING DOWN TAKU INLET, & INTO STEPHENS PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE WATER TEMPERATURE NEAR THE TAKU
RIVER MAY BE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL, POSSIBLY BY MORE THAN 10
DEGREES. TYPICALLY A RELEASE OF THIS TYPE ALONG THE TAKU RIVER
LASTS FROM 1 TO 3 DAYS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND ALASKA
RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS GOING
FORWARD AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NECESSARY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NC/BAS
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
HYDROLOGY...STJ/DS
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