289
FXAK67 PAJK 012018 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1218 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATE.../TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE TODAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES.
- SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN RATES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- THE TAKU RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REACH BANKFULL LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO ONGOING GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST. WHILE FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED, DEBRIS IN THE WATER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH
AN AREA OF TROUGHING SLIDING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER MARINE AIR, FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW AND LIGHT
SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GULF ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH SE AK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE APPROACHING
LOW SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS ALOFT, SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY
AS THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE REDUCTION
IN CLOUDS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SERIES OF LOWS APPROACH & SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD PAST SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA & ENHANCED WINDS LESS
THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(23 KT OR GREATER) TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA & INNER CHANNELS. SEAS FOR THE OUTSIDE
WATERS LOOK TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA VALUES(8 FT
OR MORE) AS THE LOWS APPROACH & PASS BY THE REGION.
THE SERIES OF AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH A SOUTHWARD POSITIONED JET STREAM, WILL
ASSIST THE FORMATION OF SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK. SEASONABLY COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WARMING. A WEAK LOW
ENTERING THE GULF ON FRIDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BRING ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, FOLLOWED BY THE FORMATION OF
ANOTHER WEAK LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SEQUENCE OF GULF
LOWS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HIGHEST INTENSITY EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODERATE MID TO LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. A SUBSEQUENT WAVE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE CONTINUOUS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, A POTENTIAL BREAK IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
INTERMITTENT CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
INCREASES, WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING AFTER
MONDAY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, TODAY, BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS & REDUCED CIGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY TODAY. GENERAL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM A
WEAKENING/COLLAPSING DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
KEEPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, NOW MORE SCATTERED IN DISTRIBUTION,
OVER THE PANHANDLE, BUT MORESO ALONG THE OUTER COAST & INTO THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL INTERMITTENTLY BRING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR CATEGORY. SFC WINDS & LLWS
VALUES WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PAGY, WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM A COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
& SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF CAPE SPENCER, WINDS AND WAVES ARE FAIRLY
BENIGN THIS MORNING. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER
THE AREA, THE FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WILL PERSIST BEFORE A FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG THE FRONT,
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD HAIDA
GWAII BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS ARE FAIRLY CALM IN THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT. THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE,
SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND TURN SOUTHERLY
IN CLARENCE STRAIT. FRIDAY MORNING, A FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE INNER CHANNELS LOOKS TO BE
COVERAGE OF RAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...MUSALL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page