932
FXAK67 PAJK 012328
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER COAST, ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU, AND THE FAR INNER WATERS
INCLUDING PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL.
- SOME CLEARING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES.
- A WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS FROM JUNEAU SOUTHWARD.
SHORT TERM
MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIOD OF RAIN IS THE NAME
OF THE GAME THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR AND JUNEAU FROM CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING IN
MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY, PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY TO RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, PERHAPS
THE OCCASIONAL SHOWER (A CHANCE OR 40%) WITH INTERMITTENT, NON
ACCUMULATING SPRINKLES. FOR AREAS THAT DO GET SHOWERS, COULD SEE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.25 INCHES DURING THE DAY, BUT EXPECT
THESE NUMBERS TO BE WIDELY VARIABLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAIN RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH, PARTICULARLY
GOING INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PAST 10 PM,
CURRENT CONFIDENCE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLY OF RAIN. THEREFORE,
KEPT THINGS AS SLIGHT CHANCE.
LONG TERM
LOOKING TOWARD THE FOURTH OF JULY, RESIDUAL ONSHORE
WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY. OVERALL, LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
RATHER WEAK, THEREFORE, THE THREAT SHIFTS TOWARDS A LOW CEILING
AND AVIATION RISK MORESO THAN ANYTHING ELSE. EXPECT TO SEE THESE
IMPACTS PRIMARILY ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, A RELATIVELY INTRIGUING
DEEP UPPER LEVEL MOVES NEAR THE PANHANDLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET
STREAK IS MODERATE TO LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TODAY'S
GUIDANCE TO SAY THAT WE MAY SEE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE JET POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB,
AND A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND DURING THE
DAYTIME, THESE TYPES OF SETUPS COULD HAVE CONVECTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. ULTIMATELY, DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE ACTIVELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY/
THE MARINE LAYER MOVES BACK IN
TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN OUTER COAST, BRINGING
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DOWN TO MVFR. THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR THURSDAY, BUT THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST HAS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY TO STAY LOWER. THE REST OF THE NORTHERN HALF TO
2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE, PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS & INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND, KEEPING CONDITIONS
LOWERED TO MVFR AT TIMES, TONIGHT. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO & THE
MORE YOU PROGRESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, FLIGHT CONDITIONS
GENERALLY IMPROVE TO AROUND VFR. PAKW MAY HAVE SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT AS THEY CLEAR OUT & EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS. GENERALLY, SFC
WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR SEVERAL DAYS, PAGY WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM
A COMBINATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT & DAYTIME SEA BREEZE FORCES.
LLWS VALUES REMAIN RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY WEAK,
PROMPTING UP TO 10 KNOT WESTERLIES FOR THE NE GULF COAST DOWN TO
AROUND CAPE SPENCER. THURSDAY SEES A SHIFT OF WESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES, INCREASING UP TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN INCOMING FRONT MOVES IN. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FT AT THIS TIME, WITH VERY LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY IS
THE LYNN CANAL AREA, AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
TAKU INLET AREA, AS STRONGER GRADIENTS ARE PROMPTING AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. FOR LYNN CANAL, COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NORTHERN END. FOR STEPHENS, EXPECTING LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE, BUT STILL COULD SEE 15 KNOT SOUTHERLIES. FINALLY,
COULD SEE SOME CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TAIYA INLET FROM THE RECENT GLACIER OUTBURST INTO THE TAKU RIVER
WITH OPPOSING FLOWS.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER GAUGE OBSERVATIONS AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HAVE CONFIRMED THAT LAKE NO LAKE HAS CONCLUDED ITS RELEASE WITH A
SLOW DECLINE OF ELEVATED RIVER FLOW ON THE TAKU RIVER. STILL COULD
SEE SOME DEBRIS IN THE WATER IN TAIYA INLET AS A RESULT OF THE
GLACIER OUTBURST, AS WELL AS SOME CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS FROM
THE FLOOD TIDE OPPOSING THE ELEVATED TAKU RIVER FLOW.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC
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