685
FXAK67 PAJK 020555 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2026
EVENING UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE PANHANDLE WITH PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES. NUDGED UP
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES, INCLUDING
JUNEAU, INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING HOURS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. PUSHED
OUT AN EARLIER WIND UPDATE AS OVERLANDS WINDS REMAINED A TAD
STRONGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 10 MPH OR
LESS, NEAR 15 MPH AT SKAGWAY, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MARITIME WINDS WITHIN THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL REMAIN LARGELY 10KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL NORTHWARD TO TAIYA INLET
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION...TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY
AS THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON OVERNIGHT WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14Z-16Z
THURSDAY. A DISSIPATING SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. FARTHER SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND PAKT WHERE LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERIODIC
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, PAKW MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FOG OR MIST BY AROUND 13Z. THE DAYTIME SEA
BREEZE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TO
PAGY. ELSEWHERE, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 328 PM AKDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER COAST, ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR INCLUDING JUNEAU, AND THE FAR INNER WATERS
INCLUDING PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL.
- SOME CLEARING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES.
- A WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING
RAIN TO AREAS FROM JUNEAU SOUTHWARD.
SHORT TERM...
MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIOD OF RAIN IS THE NAME OF THE GAME
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO BE THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND JUNEAU
FROM CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING IN MOISTURE.
ADDITIONALLY, PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO
RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, PERHAPS THE OCCASIONAL
SHOWER (A CHANCE OR 40%) WITH INTERMITTENT, NON ACCUMULATING
SPRINKLES. FOR AREAS THAT DO GET SHOWERS, COULD SEE ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 0.05 AND 0.25 INCHES DURING THE DAY, BUT EXPECT THESE
NUMBERS TO BE WIDELY VARIABLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. EXPECT TO SEE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE RAIN RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH, PARTICULARLY
GOING INTO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. WHILE CURRENT THINKING IS RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PAST 10 PM,
CURRENT CONFIDENCE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLY OF RAIN.
THEREFORE, KEPT THINGS AS SLIGHT CHANCE.
LONG TERM...
LOOKING TOWARD THE FOURTH OF JULY, RESIDUAL ONSHORE WESTERLY
WINDS LOOK TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY. OVERALL, LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS RATHER
WEAK, THEREFORE, THE THREAT SHIFTS TOWARDS A LOW CEILING AND
AVIATION RISK MORESO THAN ANYTHING ELSE. EXPECT TO SEE THESE
IMPACTS PRIMARILY ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, A RELATIVELY INTRIGUING
DEEP UPPER LEVEL MOVES NEAR THE PANHANDLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET
STREAK IS MODERATE TO LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TODAY'S
GUIDANCE TO SAY THAT WE MAY SEE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE JET POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB,
AND A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND DURING THE
DAYTIME, THESE TYPES OF SETUPS COULD HAVE CONVECTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. ULTIMATELY, DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE ACTIVELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): THE CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY WEAK,
PROMPTING UP TO 10 KNOT WESTERLIES FOR THE NE GULF COAST DOWN TO
AROUND CAPE SPENCER. THURSDAY SEES A SHIFT OF WESTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLIES, INCREASING UP TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS AN INCOMING FRONT MOVES IN. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FT AT THIS TIME, WITH VERY LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM SWELL.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY IS
THE LYNN CANAL AREA, AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
TAKU INLET AREA, AS STRONGER GRADIENTS ARE PROMPTING AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. FOR LYNN CANAL, COULD SEE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE NORTHERN END. FOR STEPHENS, EXPECTING LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE, BUT STILL COULD SEE 15 KNOT SOUTHERLIES. FINALLY,
COULD SEE SOME CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TAIYA INLET FROM THE RECENT GLACIER OUTBURST INTO THE TAKU RIVER
WITH OPPOSING FLOWS.
HYDROLOGY...
RIVER GAUGE OBSERVATIONS AS OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HAVE CONFIRMED
THAT LAKE NO LAKE HAS CONCLUDED ITS RELEASE WITH A SLOW DECLINE
OF ELEVATED RIVER FLOW ON THE TAKU RIVER. STILL COULD SEE SOME
DEBRIS IN THE WATER IN TAIYA INLET AS A RESULT OF THE GLACIER
OUTBURST, AS WELL AS SOME CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS FROM THE FLOOD
TIDE OPPOSING THE ELEVATED TAKU RIVER FLOW.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...MJB
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC
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