214
FXAK67 PAJK 021255
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
455 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUE COOL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TODAY.
- DRIER WITH CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 65 DEGREES.
- A WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN TO AREAS FROM ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SOUTH.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
SHIFTS INLAND. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER, KEEPING COOL TEMPS
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S. ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TODAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
AND AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF AND APPROACH SE AK TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. STEADIER
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. RAIN
WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50" ACROSS NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TO 0.50 TO 1.00" ACROSS THE SOUTH. COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
LOOKING TOWARD THE FOURTH OF JULY, RESIDUAL ONSHORE
WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY. OVERALL, LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS
RATHER WEAK, THEREFORE, THE THREAT SHIFTS TOWARDS A LOW CEILING
AND AVIATION RISK MORESO THAN ANYTHING ELSE. EXPECT TO SEE THESE
IMPACTS PRIMARILY ON WEST FACING SLOPES.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, A RELATIVELY INTRIGUING
DEEP UPPER LEVEL MOVES NEAR THE PANHANDLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE JET
STREAK IS MODERATE TO LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TODAY'S
GUIDANCE TO SAY THAT WE MAY SEE AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, THE JET POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB,
AND A POSSIBLE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND DURING THE
DAYTIME, THESE TYPES OF SETUPS COULD HAVE CONVECTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. ULTIMATELY, DETAILS ARE
SPARSE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT THIS SITUATION WILL BE ACTIVELY
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE HAS BROUGHT CEILINGS AS LOW AS 1500 FEET THIS MORNING
FOR HAINES. GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z, AND LIKELY
AN HOUR OR TWO LATER FOR GUSTAVUS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO BRITISH COLOMBIA, SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2500 FEET. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND CEILINGS BELOW
3000 FEET LOOKS TO COME BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA ARE BELOW 10 KTS WITH ON SHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING 20 KT WINDS AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET FRIDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS IN
THE GULF FRIDAY, BUT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AND WEAKEN. BY SUNDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY, PLEASE READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, BUT A FRONT
EARLY FRIDAY COULD BRING 10-15 KT WINDS INTO THE INNER CHANNELS.
RIGHT NOW, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN STEPHENS PASSAGE,
FREDRICK SOUND, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY, SO WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...MUSALL
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