074
FXAK67 PAJK 092304
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKDT THU JUL 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- A DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY PM INTO
FRIDAY. A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL WAVE IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS PELICAN AND
GUSTAVUS WITH AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE IN JUNEAU AS WELL. THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH OF POINT ALEXANDER HAVE DIMINISHED. BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, WHICH HAS IN TURNED AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AS WE LOSE PEAK HEATING AND THE FRONTAL WAVE DISINTEGRATES WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE
IN THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, FARTHER NORTH,
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FROM SKAGWAY TO
JUNEAU AS A SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA ADVECTS MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION RATES AND OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE THAT HIGH, BUT A PERSISTENT STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS RETAINED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER THUNDER CHANCE
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO HELP ANY STORMS ADVANCE SOUTHWEST
OUT OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY AS WE LOSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL WANTS TO
GIVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM JUNEAU TO KLAWOCK
AND POINTS EAST. BUT, WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY SUNDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA, STRONGER WINDS (UP TO 25KTS OR 27 MPH) AND
HIGHER SEAS (UP TO 9 FEET) ARE EXPECTED WEST OF ICY BAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY, BUT WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. AFTER TUESDAY,
MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF AN ADDITIONAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL, A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AN INCH THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY, HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
WINDS ARE CALMING IN SOUTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT AND NEAR PAKT, AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DECREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE WEAKENING GULF LOW CONTINUES
ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. PREVAILING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PAKW AND PAKT, WHERE LINGERING
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD.
LOOKING AHEAD, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
WESTERN CANADA WILL INTRODUCE MOISTURE TO THE INLAND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER LOCALIZED RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY,
LEADING TO MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS NEAR PAGY
REACHING 12 TO 15 KTS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, WITH
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR. HOWEVER, TONIGHT'S CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
CAUSING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH AN
OCCLUDING FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO PRINCE OF WALES AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. UPDATED GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS
DECREASING UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND SEAS LESS THAN
8FT, SO CANCELLING THE CURRENT HAZARDS FOR THE 15NM-80NM OFFSHORE
ZONE OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IN THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO EDGECUMBE
OFFSHORE ZONES FROM PRINCE OF WALES TO SOUTHERN BARANOF, EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY BEFORE
WEAKENING A BIT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SEAS TO 9FT ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY
BAY LATE SUNDAY, THOUGH DIMINISHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DIURNALLY AGAIN
TODAY IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND TAIYA INLET WITH 15 TO 20
KTS GENERALLY AND 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.
EXPECTING WINDS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING GULF LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST. A GENERALLY LIGHTER WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TAIYA INLET
AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GREATLY
INCREASES GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT THINKING IS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTING TO 25 KTS, AND PEAKING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...BAS
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