497
FXAK67 PAJK 101408
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
608 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND DEPARTS THE AREA.
- A DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS FRIDAY. A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- DIMINISHING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/
A FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF PETERSBURG INTO FREDERICK
SOUND, BUT THIS PROVED SHORT LIVED.
A SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA BEGAN ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HAINES AND SKAGWAY
BOTH REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OFF AND ON AS OF 6AM. RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION
RATES AND OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH, BUT A PERSISTENT
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE MORNING. WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LIFT AND MODESTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES, A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS RETAINED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER THUNDER CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO HELP ANY STORMS ADVANCE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AND BECOME WIDESPREAD
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY AS WE LOSE THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM JUNEAU TO
KLAWOCK AND POINTS EAST IS STILL IN THE CARDS HOWEVER DUE TO
CONTINUED OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT
TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE DECREASING SHOWERS, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SO TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
LARGELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 70 FOR
SATURDAY. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND EXPECTED DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY SUNDAY, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO FORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA, STRONGER WINDS (UP TO 25KTS OR 27 MPH) AND
HIGHER SEAS (UP TO 9 FEET) ARE EXPECTED WEST OF ICY BAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY, BUT WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. AFTER TUESDAY,
MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF AN ADDITIONAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL, A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW AN INCH THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY, HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. AFTER WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT /
WINDS ARE CALMING IN
SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND NEAR PAKT, AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
DECREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE WEAKENING GULF LOW
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL INTRODUCE MOISTURE TO
THE INLAND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER LOCALIZED RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY, LEADING TO MVFR CIGS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS NEAR PAGY REACHING 12 TO 15 KTS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHWARD, WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. THERE WAS
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, CAUSING
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
IN THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO EDGECUMBE OFFSHORE ZONES FROM PRINCE OF
WALES TO SOUTHERN BARANOF, EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING A BIT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND SEAS 6 TO 7 FT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 9FT ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY BAY LATE SUNDAY, THOUGH
DIMINISHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DIURNALLY AGAIN
TODAY IN SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND TAIYA INLET WITH 15 TO 20
KTS GENERALLY AND 5 FT SEAS ALONG THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION.
EXPECTING WINDS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING GULF LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST. A GENERALLY LIGHTER WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TAIYA INLET
AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GREATLY
INCREASES GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT THINKING IS SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTING TO 25 KTS, AND PEAKING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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