622
FXAK67 PAJK 110602
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1002 PM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2026
UPDATE
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO
INCLUDE SKAGWAY AND HAINES THIS EVENING BASED OFF SATELLITE AND
LIGHTNING TRENDS WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTHWEST NEAR
WHITEHORSE. THIS COMPLEX IS ALSO BRINGING EASTERLY SHOWERS FROM
JUNEAU AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND. SHOWERS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS THROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, LARGE FIRES IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORY ARE SENDING
LOFTED SMOKE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BASED OFF OF
WEBCAMS AND WEATHER OBS IN THE YUKON AND NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HAVE ADDED HAZE INTO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE COMMUNITIES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AS SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH, BRINGING LOWERED CIGS AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AND
RESTRICTED VIS OF 2 TO 4 SM WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SKAGWAY AND INTO HAINES,
LOWERING CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR AT TIME. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW, AS ALL LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CELL HAS
REMAINED ON THE BC SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN SHOWERS, THOUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD ON TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THESE VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD.
CHANCES ARE LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION IS OVER PETERSBURG. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN
REDUCE CIGS TO BELOW 1000 FT AND VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 2 SM. A
MARINE LAYER OFF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS ALSO EXPECTED
BRING REDUCED CIGS TO YAKUTAT OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 405 PM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2026...
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...TWO MAIN FEATURES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS AND A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. BOTH ARE GENERATING
PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS BEING MUTED
BY A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL DECK. THE MOST
PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SOUTH OF JUNEAU, MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WITH MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
BEING ORIENTED FROM NNE TO SSW, THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR JUNEAU AND POINTS NORTH.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A FEW MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER, BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
IS QUITE LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP REGION WIDE ON SATURDAY AS WE LOSE THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY FROM JUNEAU AND LOCALES SOUTH, AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE INTERIOR.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
GULF, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE EVEN MORE. HOWEVER, IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW, SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO OR JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THAT SAID, AREAS THAT SEE ANY SUSTAINED
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD EASILY APPROACH 70F, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS 850-MB TEMPS PEAK. LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR REGION, BUT MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND
MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SET UP WEST OF ANCHORAGE AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
NEXT NEXT WEEK TO BE FROM YAKUTAT TO THE WEST, WHERE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE UP TO 1.5". BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONGER WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR ICY BAY (UP
TO 25 KTS).
AS A LOW PRESSURE STALLS OUT TO THE WEST, IT WILL LEAD TO ON
SHORE FLOW AND KEEP CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
IF SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR, THEN TEMPERATURES
COULD RISE THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S,
BUT SOME 70S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD, EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN BETWEEN
MVFR TO VFR WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2000FT. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED. CHANCES
ARE LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR A PERIOD OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
NIGHT, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION IS OVER PETERSBURG. ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN REDUCE
CEILINGS TO BELOW 1000 FT AND VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 2 SM.
ANOTHER THING WE ARE WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF THE AREA IN THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA CANADA AREA. WE WILL WATCH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD, IN CASE THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
DO MOVE INTO THE AREA THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SKAGWAY
AREA WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. ALL THIS BEING SAID,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE
AREA TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS OF INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER N LYNN CANAL, ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT TAIYA INLET.
TAIYA INLET SPECIFICALLY COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE TREND OF STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AT THIS
TIME, SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR OFF SHORE
WATERS AND THE NORTHERN GULF, NEAR KAYAK ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. ALONG WITH WINDS, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
THEN DIMINISH MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ZTK/DJS
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAB
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