154
FXAK67 PAJK 111426 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
626 AM AKDT SAT JUL 11 2026
UPDATE
AN AREA OF VERY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED
INTO THE PETERSBURG AREA LOWER AND HYDABURG HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PETERSBURG
AREA HAS IT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THERE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR
ALREADY. CARRIED IT OUT TO 18Z, BUT MAY NOT NEED IT THAT LONG.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 544 AM AKDT SAT JUL 11
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE LAYER IS BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND COASTAL AREAS.
- SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII AND ONE
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ARE WORKING IN TANDEM TO
RESPECTIVELY PULL AND PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE ONE OVER BC LOOKS TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF A BIT LONGER, THE ONE DOWN OFF HAIDA GWAII LOOKS
TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TO LIMIT SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALOFT. OVERALL THIS SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION, HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES HAZY WHERE
THEY MAY OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN CLEAR. THIS SMOKE HAZE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
INTERIOR. WITH RIDGING BUILDING AT THE SURFACE AND DAYTIME HEATING
OVER THE INTERIOR, LARGE SCALE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG LYNN CANAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE,
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY CALM.
A WEAK FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY WILL PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER EAST, CAUSING A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN
WINDS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD
ALSO BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE OUTER COAST AND ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM... /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SET UP WEST OF ANCHORAGE AND LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
NEXT NEXT WEEK TO BE FROM YAKUTAT TO THE WEST, WHERE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE UP TO 1.5". BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONGER WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR ICY BAY
(UP TO 25 KTS).
AS A LOW PRESSURE STALLS OUT TO THE WEST, IT WILL LEAD TO ON SHORE
FLOW AND KEEP CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST. IF SOME
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS ABLE TO OCCUR, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
RISE THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S, BUT SOME 70S
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION.../ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / A BAND OF HIGHER VFR CLOUDS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, ACROSS THE CENTRAL ( KAKE, PETERSBURG
AND HYDABURG) A BAND OF IFR WITH CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT AND THEN
MARGINAL WITH CEILING OF 1200 TI 2500 FEET. IN THE AREA OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR PATCHY BELOW 2 MILES HAS
BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE MINOR IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE BAND LOOSES SOME ENERGY AND WEAKENS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AT THIS TIME,
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR OFF SHORE WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN GULF, NEAR KAYAK ISLAND.
THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ALONG WITH WINDS, SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL ONCE AGAIN THEN DIMINISH MONDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS AROUND POINT COUVERDEN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF
INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER N LYNN CANAL,
ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT TAIYA INLET. TAIYA INLET SPECIFICALLY COULD
SEE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. THE TREND OF STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS IN N LYNN CANAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ326.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...MUSALL
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BEZENEK
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